Even I was surprised when I read that Minnesota's ACA exchange, MNsure, was projecting to more than double their 2015 enrollment figure. Yes, other states like Massachusetts are expected to increase their numbers severalfold, but it always seemed like a stretch for Minnesota, especially with their largest 2014 participant, PreferredOne, dropping out this year. They hit around 50K last year and were originally projecting to hit over 100K this time around.
Sure enough, they've decided to walk that number back a bit, down to 67K...which would be an increase of only 38% over the
48,495 they enrolled during the first open enrollment period:
MNsure on Wednesday said it was cutting by about one-third the number of people it expects will enroll in private health plans through the exchange for 2015.
That means MNsure will also see a drop in revenue, although officials say they expect to end the fiscal year next June with no red ink.
Huh. OK, I wasn't expecting MNsure's update until Friday this week (they put it out on Wednesday last week due to Thanksgiving), but fair enough:
Latest Enrollment Numbers
December 3, 2014
MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.
Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 8,874
MinnesotaCare 2,954 Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 7,106
TOTAL 18,934
MNsure is running around 54% higher than their 2014 daily average so far, FWIW.
I just got off the phone with Christopher Snowbeck of the Star Tribune in Minnesota, who informed me that MN has a rather unique state law which, combined with the company dropping out of the ACA exchange, could have a serious impact on up to 23,500 residents who enrolled in policies via PreferredOne earlier this year.
To recap: MNsure, Minnesota's ACA exchange, enrolled roughly 48,500 people in private policies as of April. Unlike the 16% national attrition rate since then, Minnesota's ACA policies have retained 97% of their enrollments as of October (it's still at around 47,000 as of now out of 55,000 total enrollees to date). About 60% (33,000) of the total were through PreferredOne, although according to my sources, a good 10K of these have already moved on to other types of coverage (either a competitor, ESI, Medicare, Medicaid or whatever).
So, that leaves around 23,500 people still currently enrolled in MNsure-based PreferredOne policies as of October 15th.
OK, this is excellent. Minnesota has not only updated their official Enrollment Update page for the first time since #OE2 started, they've also clarified exactly when it will be updated (over the off-season it was scattershot, although they sometimes updated it daily:
Latest Enrollment Numbers
November 21, 2014
MNsure will release 2015 enrollment metrics weekly, and will present a more robust metrics summary to the MNsure Board of Directors at each regularly-scheduled board meeting. During weeks that MNsure is closed on Friday, the enrollment metrics update will be released earlier in the week.
Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 4,119
MinnesotaCare 1,215 Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 2,551
TOTAL 7,885
That's 2,551 QHPs in (less than) 7 days, or 364 per day so far.
For comparison, last year they averaged 242 per day (and remember, that included the massive spikes in December and late March/early April).
Plus, of course, we have the reset Medicare/MinnesotaCare numbers to plug in.
Nice to have an official number, and like the other state-run exchanges which have overhauled their systems, Minnesota's 2015 kickoff is a massive improvement over last year:
Strong Enrollment
Since the 2015 open enrollment period began on Saturday, 1,516 consumers have enrolled in Qualified Health Plans through the MNsure marketplace. By contrast, 406 consumers enrolled in Qualified Health Plans during the first two weeks of the 2014 open enrollment period, meaning MNsure has enrolled four times more people in its first four days than it did last year in two weeks. Also, 765 have enrolled in MinnesotaCare and 2,431 have enrolled in Medical Assistance. MNsure is the only place for Minnesotans to find out if they are eligible for financial assistance such as tax credits, and low-cost or no-cost coverage.
Again, for comparison, during the first open enrollment period, Minnesota enrolled 48,495 people, or 242 per day, so their initial pace is about even with that so far:
More than 500 people signed up for commercial health insurance this weekend through MNsure, the state’s health insurance exchange.
Open enrollment started Saturday at MNsure, and more than 27,000 new and returning users accessed the health exchange website through the weekend, said Scott Leitz, the MNsure chief executive during a news conference Monday in St. Paul. About 2,700 people phoned the MNsure call center for help, and the average wait time was about two minutes, Leitz said.
The first-weekend figures are a good start toward meeting enrollment goals, Leitz said. The number of phone calls this weekend was 10 times the typical volume for MNsure.
This makes the 5th state-run exchange to report hard numbers for Day One...this brings the verified Day One total to 2,515 QHP enrollees. Again, small but symbolically significant.
MNsure calls Saturday’s open enrollment a big improvement from what happened last year.
As of 3 p.m., 201 people had signed up for health insurance.
On average, customers waited for help a little more than one minute. Last year, the average wait was more than two hours.
OK, the numbers have barely moved, and technically this update is missing 3 days (it only runs through 11/11 instead of 11/14), but MNsure has been the only exchange, federal or state, which has provided an almost odometer-like frequency of off-exchange updates.
