dKos Archive

OK, let me get this out of the way up front: Yes, this is pretty self-serving of me, and kind of stupid, but it's something which has been bugging me for four years now, so I finally decided to do something about it.

As longtime readers know, ACA Signups didn't start out as a full website. Originally it consisted entirely of a Google Docs spreadsheet with a domain name pointing to it. The domain wasn't even ACASignups.net; I started out using ObamacareSignups.net, which still repoints to the site today. I changed it after the first month or so not because I have a problem with "Obamacare" but because ACASignups.net is simply faster to type out.

The ACA Signups project actually started out as a series of blog posts over at Daily Kos, one of the largest online progressive political sites in the country, where I had already been posting under the name Brainwrap on any number of issues for nearly a decade.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Sorry to disappoint everyone, but I've run into my first major data error (to my knowledge) in weeks.

Read the whole blog post for details, but the short version is that I had Minnesota up to 125K total (50K private, 75K public), when it turns out that those numbers should only be 19,420 and 33,759 respectively. It also means that last week's Minnesota numbers were wrong as well.

I've already corrected the spreadsheet; this means the total is 30,580 less than I had it last night.

My apologies for the error...which came on the same day that a White House representative apparently mentioned me by name on MSNBC this morning. Lovely.

Oh, I should note that I know I promised an update to the IA/NE numbers and how this relates to "off-exchange" enrollments, but between the Minnesota correction and the actual paying work that I'm way behind on (you know, my job and all...) that'll have to wait until later today (I hope).

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yesterday morning's big news, of course, was that the Federal ACA exchange (covering 36 states) is now up to over 1.1 million private healthcare plan enrollees. Today brings 4 new state-level updates...and a teaser for two others you probably weren't expecting to see.

New York:
Today's big news is in New York, which announced that they're up to a total of 241,522 enrollees in either private plans or Medicaid/SCHIP expansion. They haven't broken out the number yet, but based on the split in the previous update (156K private, 58K Medicaid/SCHIP) I'm going with a 73% private / 27% Medicaid split until more specific info is released. This increases NY's private enrollments to 176K, up 20K from last week. h/t to Buenaventura for being the first to notify me.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, it wasn't really planning on setting ACASignups.net up as anything more than an embedded Google Spreadsheet, but along with the spike in ACA enrollments over the past 2 weeks has also come a similar spike in website traffic and exposure. Over the past few days, it's been linked to and/or cited by major media outlets including Forbes, New York Magazine and, most notably, the Washington Post, so I figured it was time to expand, organize and tidy up things a bit.

I also wasn't planning on launching the new version of the site until January 1st, but given this morning's announcement that the Federal healthcare exchange (Healthcare.Gov) has topped 1.1 million enrollments--which in turn brings the overall total of private plan enrollments to over 2 million--I decided to go ahead and launch it a bit earlier than expected. (h/t to David S. for the heads up)

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Just a teaser. With the spike in enrollments has also come a spike in traffic and attention, so you knew this was coming...

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, after the insanity of the past few days in terms of both the ever-shifting January enrollment deadline (changing from 12/15 to 12/23 and then 12/24 Federally; ranging from 12/23 to 12/24 to 12/27 to, amazingly, 12/31 for some of the State exchanges) as well as on a personal level (Forbes, the Washington Post and NY Magazine are now citing ACASignups.net as a trusted source), actual updates to the enrollment tally have actually been kind of quiet the past day or so.

(oh, and also, thank you to dKos for the Front Page treatment this morning!)

The numbers were spiking so rapidly in the days leading up to Christmas Eve that it's a bit odd to see such a dearth of new data since then.

HOWEVER, there have been 3 updates since then which may seem pretty minor on the surface, but which speak volumes about what's actually happening nationally.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

I included this as an update to my previous diary, but decided that given how often I'm hearing this new attack lately, it deserved it's own diary.

First it was "No one can get on the website!"

Then it was "OK, the site is loading but no one can create an account!"

Then "OK, you can create an account but no one can view the plans!"

Then "OK, you can view the plans but no one can fill out their application!"

Then "OK, you can apply but no one can actually enroll!"

Then "OK, it works now, but no one bothering to do so anymore!"

Then "OK, (a lot of) people are enrolling, but none of the data is being transferred to the insurance companies!"

And now that we've hit over 1.8 million private enrollments, the new attack is:

"FINE, a lot of people have ENROLLED, but how many have actually PAID???"

Below the fold, a simple 2 part response:

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yesterday was, as predicted, rather chaotic on the ACASignups.net front. This morning, the fun continues with a few more last-minute updates. Also, I made my "final" predictions late last night...which I'm now scrapping in favor of a different type of "final" prediction (see below for more on this).

This morning's updates below the fold:

--Washington State (h/t ArcticStones):

Enrollments in private health plans on Healthplanfinder, the state’s online insurance marketplace, surged past 65,000 as applicants hustled to beat the Monday night deadline for coverage beginning Jan. 1, Washington Health Benefit Exchange officials reported Tuesday.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

CoveredCA just posted this on their Facebook and Twitter feeds:

Good evening! If you started an application December 23, but haven't completed it, you now have until Friday, December 27 at 8pm to finish for coverage starting on January 1. However, you cannot complete your application online as part of this extension. Instead, please call our service center at 1-800-300-1506, or work with a Certified Enrollment Counselor or Agent - you can find one at this link. Happy Holidays, and get covered!

Meanwhile, the latest tally of enrollments now stands at 1.797M Private Enrollments and 3.931M Medicaid/SCHIP expansion.

I also wanted to go on the record with my prediction for the final private enrollment tally projection for the "real" 1/1/14 coverage deadline of midnight tonight: 1.95 - 2.0 million.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

A few more minor updates today, but honestly, with the deadline having passed in a few states, extended to tonight in most, and extended until through Friday in still others, it's gonna be chaotic to keep up for a few days.

HOWEVER, here's where things stand as of 11:30am, 12/24/13 (thanks to ArcticStones for the Vermont & Colorado updates):

--CALIFORNIA: They hit 30,000 private enrollments yesterday, up from 15K/day 2 weeks ago to 20K/day last week. I currently have them at around 450,000 total, which coincides with their "over 400K" tweet from 24 hours ago (ie, there's been a good 30-60K more since then).

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yes, I know I just posted the latest numbers this morning: 1.65 million private enrollments, 3.9 million Medicaid/SCHIP.

That was then. This is now.

New numbers from RI, MD, KY, CO and especially California have now brought the tally up once again; we now stand at:

Private Enrollments: 1.73 Million
Medicaid/SCHIP: 3.92 Million

Total: 5.65 Million (+ 3.1 million young adults on their parents plans)

Another shout-out to ArcticStones, who brought me 4 of the 5 latest state updates in quick succession.

Oh, and re. the messy, 4-line California figures...they add up:

 

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, after my victory lap the other day upon confirmation that ACASignups.net had nailed the actual current number of private Obamacare exchange enrollments with 99% accuracy, it was pointed out to me by ericlewis0 that even including the Medicare/SCHIP expansion enrollments, the actual total number of people who now have healthcare coverage (or are about to as of 10 days from now) who previously didn't is actually more than 8 Million.

That is to say, I completely forgot the 3.1 million (as of June 2012...it was 2.5 million a year earlier, so I'm sure it's even higher today) young adults under 26 years old who now have coverage through their parents policies who otherwise wouldn't have, thanks to the Affordable Care Act.

If you add these 3.1 million to the 1.4 million private enrollments and the 3.9 million Medicaid/SCHIP expansion enrollments, that actually comes to around 8.4 million.

 

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Politico, less than an hour ago:

More than one million Americans signed up for health insurance under the Affordable Care Act during the first three weeks of December, including 500,000 through the federal exchange, President Barack Obama announced Friday.

  • Official enrollments 10/1 - 11/30: 364,682
  • "Over 1 Million" 12/01 - 12/20: at least 1,000,001
  • Total: 1,364,683

ACASignups.net as of this morning: 1,349,562

Damn, we're good.

Thanks to ArcticStones, ybruti, MotherShipper, shiska64, rugbymom, timmyc, CJB, rsmpdx, dadadata, Rolyboy6 and everyone else who has been helping me with this project.

Meanwhile, check out the news on Medicaid (which has been spottier/harder to come by, even though the numbers are already higher):

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

As we move into Week 12, the following is mostly just a more organized roundup of the past few days' developments, plus a cleaned-up graph:

This has been the craziest week yet for ACASignups.net, and the past day or so, things went into overdrive.

First, we had this:

If November had an Obamacare surge, consider this the December deluge. California averaged 15,000 daily enrollments early last week, about double the sign-ups the state had in early December. New York is now seeing about 4,500 residents choosing plans each day and, in Connecticut, the number is hovering around 1,400.

That bumped the number of private plan enrollments up to 815,000.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

...and all hell breaks loose in California!

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — With the deadline approaching for Covered California™ health insurance coverage beginning Jan. 1, 2014, tens of thousands of new enrollees are seeking out help and signing up for plans. In fact, preliminary data indicates that in just the past three days (Dec 16-18), 53,510 people enrolled by selecting a Covered California health insurance plan. That tops the 30,830 enrollments completed for the entire month of October by nearly 60 percent.

Seriously, can't I leave ACASignups.net alone for 5 friggin' minutes without having to update the numbers again???

The 15K per day average from last week was extremely impressive. This just upped the ante even more, culminating in the key line:

On Wednesday, Dec. 18, a total of 20,506 enrollments were received by Covered California

Over 20K.

In one day.

From one state.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Boy did I speak too soon. Earlier today I posted a diary stating that new enrollment figures for ACASignups.net have been a bit on the scarce side this week.

Literally moments after I posted the diary, WHAMMO:

If November had an Obamacare surge, consider this the December deluge. California averaged 15,000 daily enrollments early last week, about double the sign-ups the state had in early December. New York is now seeing about 4,500 residents choosing plans each day and, in Connecticut, the number is hovering around 1,400.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

UPDATE: Literally seconds after I posted this, some new numbers have come in from Kentucky and Connecticut that bump things up a bit more...

After a ton of new data last week, it seems that the state agencies have decided to put more focus on actually enrolling people and processing their forms than issuing their numbers. This is a polite way of saying that ACASignups.net is at a bit of a standstill at the moment, not because the enrollments aren't happening (if anything, they should be through the roof right now through next week), but because the numbers are just not being released as easily.

Case in point: California just issued a press release with their latest statistics, which are very impressive...except that they don't include the most important numbers that we're looking for: Updated actual enrollment figures.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

OK, I'm not sure how much this particular milestone should be crowed about considering that over 40% of the enrollment period has elapsed, but new actual numbers have been rather thin over the weekend, so I figured I'd call some attention to it.

New York is the only state that's released it's latest figures today, but thanks to them doing so (95,000 private enrollments, 40,000 Medicaid/SCHIP expansion), the total now stands at over 711,000 private healthcare plans through the ACA exchanges.

Since the original CBO projection (remember, that was a projection, not an actual goal) through 3/31/14 was a tad over 7 million, that means that the exchanges have broken through the 10% mark. Yay team!

Some other cool numbers:

--Connecticut continues to kick major ass, having enrolled over 56% of their CBO projection. They could easily double or even potentially even triple the 33,000 figure that they were expected to achieve by the end of March.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

In a comment from a Mother Jones article about Obamacare enrollments, I just received the highest praise I could hope for:

"During the '12 election, I compulsively consulted 538.com...Now I compulsively consult acasignups.net."

I'm honored beyond words.

I'm also extremely happy to report that thanks to California finally updating their official numbers (partly spoiled by yesterday's November HHS Report), the official ACASignups.nettally has shattered through the 600K mark, and now stands at:

Private Plan Enrollments: 679,743
Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 1,829,180
Total: 2,508,923

Meanwhile, check out the trend/projection line, which has jumped from around 3.7 million up to around 4.2 million by 3/31/14.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

I have to admit, I wasn't expecting the official November HHS ACA enrollment report to be released until Friday (October's was released on 11/13), so I've spent the past few hours scrambling to update the ACASignups.net spreadsheet and graph. I'm happy to say that I've finished doing so.

I also have to admit to being slightly bothered by the failure to include so much as a footnote mention of ACASignups.net in this morning's front-page story about the HHS report, considering that this project is being run by more than a dozen dedicated dKos members, has a devoted following here and elsewhere, has been updated daily on a state-by-state basis, has been recognized by both Markos and Joan here at dKos, and even recently received some recognition by Sarah Kliff at WashPost's WonkBlog.

Ahem.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

After a TON of activity last week, the ACASignups.netspreadsheet was a bit quiet over the weekend. However, several new stats came out yesterday and today which have things moving again:

--The NY Times reports that 112,000 people enrolled in private plans--via Healthcare.gov--in the first week of December. Note that this doesn't include the other 14 state-run exchanges (plus DC). By comparison, only 27,000 enrolled in the Federal exchange throughout October, and 100,000 in November. So, that's a 4x increase the 2nd month followed by (so far) a 4x increase the third month.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yup, that's right: After 9 weeks of charting, graphing and otherwise tallying everyone else enrolling in healthcare plans via the ACA exchanges, I'm happy and relieved to report that my wife and I finally went ahead and enrolled ourselves.

Living in Michigan, we had to use HealthCare.gov. I'm very happy to confirm that the reports from the HHS Dept. and other media sources are correct: It's working infinitely faster and more reliably than even a couple of weeks ago.

Since my wife is the principle name listed on our current plan, and since we're sticking with the same company anyway (just switching to one of the new ACA-compliant plans), she insisted on creating a brand-new user account under her name, figuring that there might be some confusion caused within the company system if the new plan was entered with my name as the principle one. I have no idea if this makes sense or not, but figured it wouldn't be a bad idea to start fresh with the most recent bugfixes in place.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

HOUSTON, WE HAVE LIFT-OFF!!

Roughly 27,000 Americans signed up for insurance on the federal exchange on Tuesday, according to internal figures, bringing the site’s three-day enrollment total to 56,000. That figure is more than double the number who enrolled online in the entire month of October, which was almost 27,000.

Needless to say, I've been scrambling to bring the ACASignups.net spreadsheet up to speed this morning.

It seems that the "December Spike" or "Post-Thanksgiving Surge" or whatever you want to call it that Pres. Obama and the HHS Dept. were hoping for is happening, and in a big way. The announcement that the biggest hurdles in the ongoing Healthcare.Gov website debacle have been resolved is no doubt a major part of this dramatic turn of events.

In any event, I think I'll be hopping over the next few weeks.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

The newly game HealthCare.gov signed up 29,000 people on Sunday and Monday, an official familiar with the program said, more than were enrolled through the federal Obamacare portal in all of October.

The enrollment surge follows a round-the-clock effort by federal tech officials and contractors to make more than 400 software fixes and hardware upgrades since the site’s disastrous launch.

Already added to the ACASignups.net spreadsheet; see updated graph below.

As you can see, at the current rate, they'll hit roughly 2.9 million by 3/31/14.

HOWEVER:

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Now that we're past Thanksgivukkah and out of November, the monthly ACA enrollment numbers for the 2nd month of the Healthcare Exchanges are starting to come in. I don't have any official numbers for any specific states for the past week or so yet, but according to Bloomberg News, Healthcare.gov saw a quadrupling of enrollments over October last month:

About 100,000 people signed up for health insurance through the online federal exchange last month, a roughly four-fold increase from October even as a team of U.S. government and contractor programmers was fixing the troubled Affordable Care Act website, said a person familiar with program’s progress.

The preliminary November numbers reflect individuals who successfully selected a plan.

Now, there's some important points to keep in mind here:

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Yes, that's right--thanks to new data out of West Virginia and clarified/confirmed data out of California, the ACASignups.netspreadsheet just saw the Medicaid/SCHIP expansion total nearly double, to nearly 1.4 million.

Specifically, this article in USA Today (provided by dKos member ybruti), which notes that WV authorities personally contacted 118,000 people deemed eligible for Medicaid expansion and have already enrolled over 54,000 of them.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

've added a few new numbers to ACASignups.net, but the main changes are some new features:

--First, I'm "changing" the name from ObamacareSignups.net to ACASignups.net. Both will take you to the same spreadsheet, of course, but ACASignups.net is just shorter and easier to type. Use whichever one you feel is appropriate when reposting.

--Second, as I mentioned last week, by popular request, I've added graphical charts showing both the ACA Private Exchange enrollments as well as a comparison against the Massachusetts enrollment pattern of 2007.

--Third (and this is BRAND NEW), I've added the actual official HHS Dept. Per-State Goals for the 6-month enrollment period! This answers the question about where the mystical "7 million" figure came from, broken down by state (more about this below the fold).

--As far as I can tell, 2 of the other websites that were tracking ACA enrollments have abandoned the project: Advisory Board Company and Aaron Strauss. However, EnrollMaven.com is still keeping at it.

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Meanwhile, since the official HHS report last week, I've made some major changes to the ObamacareSignups.netspreadsheet:

Going forward, whenever possible I'm going to only be listing actual enrollments for each state. In this sense, my numbers will more closely parallel EnrollMaven.com, an openly anti-ACA website that's also been tracking Obamacare signups. I was highly skeptical of EnrollMaven at first, but their methodology seems to be sound. In addition, they've at least been completely frank about their negative opinion of the ACA, and many of my sources have turned out to be identical to theirs, so I've grown pretty comfortable with using them as a cross-check on my own numbers.

However, there's still a few important differences between their site and ObamacareSignups.net:

--I'm continuing to include Medicaid and SCHIP enrollments, which they don't track; this is still a crucially important factor, both for the success of the ACA as well as from a purely humanitarian POV

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Meanwhile, since the official HHS report last week, I've made some major changes to the ObamacareSignups.netspreadsheet:

Going forward, whenever possible I'm going to only be listing actual enrollments for each state. In this sense, my numbers will more closely parallel EnrollMaven.com, an openly anti-ACA website that's also been tracking Obamacare signups. I was highly skeptical of EnrollMaven at first, but their methodology seems to be sound. In addition, they've at least been completely frank about their negative opinion of the ACA, and many of my sources have turned out to be identical to theirs, so I've grown pretty comfortable with using them as a cross-check on my own numbers.

However, there's still a few important differences between their site and ObamacareSignups.net:

--I'm continuing to include Medicaid and SCHIP enrollments, which they don't track; this is still a crucially important factor, both for the success of the ACA as well as from a purely humanitarian POV

Pages