Confirmed 2015 QHPs: 11,693,550 as of 3/02/15
Estimated: 11.76M (8.96M via HCgov) as of 3/02/15

state-level targets (revised) 
Estimated 2015 ACA Policy Enrollment: 32.4M
(10.3M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M OFF-Exchange QHPs, 200K SHOP, 13.9M Medicaid/CHIP)


FINAL 2014 QHPs (as of 11/14/14): 6.7M Current / 8.4M PAID / 9.6M Total
TOTAL: 6.7M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M Off-Exchange QHPs, 10.7M Medicaid/CHIP, 2.0M assorted

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UPDATE: I've confirmed that Maryland and Massachusetts do both plan on continuing to issue at least monthly reports during the off season (I'd prefer weekly but I'll take what I can get).

As of today (February 27th), the 2015 Open Enrollment Period has ended in 47 states (KY, MD, NY & WA states are still allowing "In Line by Midnight" extensions through tomorrow night or all the way out until April, and CO, CT, DC & HI have taken a sort of "case by case basis" approach with no specific hard deadline).

Last Sunday I decided to round up all of the different "overtime period" policies onto a single page, which has been linked to as a resource by a bunch of media outlets. Today I'm doing the same thing for the Tax Filing Season special enrollment period, which has already been announced for 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 states as of 3/03:

A couple of weeks back, CoveredCA reported that they had renewed 944,000 2014 QHP enrollees, and added another 474,000 new enrollees for 2015, for a grand total of around 1,418,000 private policy enrollees (payments pending, of course). Like every other state, CA tacked on an "overtime" period for people who were waiting "in line" by the 2/15 deadline but hadn't completed the process. I was assuming this might push their grand total up to perhaps 1.5 million or so.

Today, CoveredCA released their final official numbers, and they're...underwhelming:

Obamacare: @CoveredCA says newly enrolled 2015 was 495K, total enrollment including renewals is 1.41M #ACA

— Chad Terhune (@chadterhune) March 5, 2015

@charles_gaba yes, slight change. Renewal figure went from 944K to 913.3 as of 2-26

Some people were disappointed (and others no doubt relieved) that after flapping my gums about it for the past 9 months, I didn't have anything to say about the actual King v. Burwell oral arguments yesterday. As I noted, I'm neither an attorney nor a SCOTUS or Constitutional scholar. I really don't know much about the actual mechanics of Supreme Court procedures--heck, until yesterday evening, I didn't even realize that the 2-3 hours of lawyers and Justices chit-chatting was the whole ball of wax:

@onceupona @nicholas_bagley Stupid question: Was today IT? that is, was the whole #King thing a 1-day deal, followed by 3 mo of waiting?

— Charles Gaba (@charles_gaba) March 5, 2015

@charles_gaba @onceuponA Yup

A woman named Monica Gomez of Carrington College requested that I post the following here at ACA Signups. I was impressed with both the content and graphic design, so here it is:

The Silver Lining: Medical Tax Breaks Can Offset Health Care Costs

Everyone needs medical services at some point in their lives. Yet, annual expenses rise every year: health care costs increased 22% from 2010 to 2013 alone. Now that health insurance has become mandatory, many fear that their health expenses will increase even more. Luckily, Americans may be able to offset some of their health care costs by by deducting applicable medical expenses.

Who Qualifies?

Long-time followers of this site know that I attempt to track every person who gets enrolled in healthcare coverage through the Affordable Care Act, whether it's via individual/family exchanges, Medicaid expansion, off-exchange QHP enrollments...or the SHOP (Small Business) exchanges. They'll also recall that last year, due to the massive technical problems which most of the exchange websites faced, only a handful of SHOP exchanges were even usable, much less actually signing people up. The exchanges were, for the most part, so busy scrambling to get the individual enrollment side working properly that they pretty much put the SHOP exchanges on the back burner. Only about a half-dozen states had theirs running at all, and the total enrollment topped out at only around 83,000 people nationally.

A couple of weeks ago, Gallup released a massive Health Insurance Survey which noted that the uninsured rate nationally fell from 17.3% to 13.8%. On the one hand, yay Obamacare! On the other hand, this drop in the uninsured was far less impressive-sounding than earlier surveys put out by the Urban Institute, Commonwealth Fund, RAND Corporation...and even Gallup itself.

There was an obvious reason for this, however: 

In other words, they surveyed a mountain of people, but the polling was spread out over the full course of each year. These are full-year averages. There's nothing wrong with this, and 10 years from now it will be more practical to look at historical data from a year-to-year perspective. At the moment, however, things are changing very rapidly as enrollments/expansion/policy implementation goes into effect, and a month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter perspective is far more telling.

Chris Savage is the creator and operator of Eclectablog, the place to go for progressive political news in Michigan. He also happens to be an awesome guy, a colleague, a client and a friend.

Today is his birthday. In honor of Chris, I'd like to ask visitors to consider making a donation to him today. Just visit Eclectablog, scroll all the way down and look for this PayPal area in the lower-right corner:

Happy Birthday, Chris!

Oh, yeah...the King v. Burwell case is also being argued in front of the Supreme Court today.

P.S. I'll have plenty to say about today's King v. Burwell developments this afternoon or tomorrow, I'm sure, but for the moment there's not much more I can add. I'm neither a lawyer nor a Constitutional scholar; others are far more knowledgable about the particulars of the Supreme Court as well as the personalities/idiosyncracies of the individual Justices.

Back in January, I summed up the sham King v. Burwell case as follows:

Furthermore, the other 20-30% would likely have a much higher percentage of people with truly serious medical issues, in turn causing the very "death spiral" of increasing premiums which ACA opponents claimed would happen if the law operated under the current situation (but which never happened).

In other words, the "death spiral" didn't happen the way they thought it would, so they're making damned sure that it does happen by tearing the law apart any way they can.

I was being pithy, but my point was completely serious.

Today, Wendell Potter notes that the Republicans may have succeeded in destroying the lives of millions of people even if the Supreme Court ends up shooting down the King plaintiffs:

Back in December, I noted that Michigan's implementation of the ACA's Medicaid expansion provision had achieved an impressive 99.4% of it's theoretical maximum enrollment. Official state administration estimates pegged the number of Michiganders eligible for the program at around 477,000, and as of 12/08/14, enrollment had hit 474K.

Other estimates had Michigan's eligible population as being higher--perhaps 500,000, so I didn't think too much of it at the time. Besides, population shifts, changes in the economy and so forth could mean that an estimate from last spring had shifted up or down a bit.

Even so, as the official enrollment total broke 500K, then 510K, then 530K, I noted each increase, with increasing curiosity about the discrepancy.

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