Confirmed 2015 QHPs: 11,691,419 as of 2/25/15
Estimated: 11.74M (8.95M via HCgov) as of 2/28/15

state-level targets (revised) 
Estimated 2015 ACA Policy Enrollment: 32.4M
(10.3M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M OFF-Exchange QHPs, 200K SHOP, 13.9M Medicaid/CHIP)


FINAL 2014 QHPs (as of 11/14/14): 6.7M Current / 8.4M PAID / 9.6M Total
TOTAL: 6.7M Exchange QHPs, 8.0M Off-Exchange QHPs, 10.7M Medicaid/CHIP, 2.0M assorted

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On Sunday, February 22nd, the "Waiting in Line by Midnight" enrollment extension period officially ended for residents of 38 states (all 37 on Healthcare.Gov, plus California). The overtime period ended on Friday in Minnesota, on Saturday in Idaho and on Monday in Massachusetts, Rhode Island & Vermont.

That leaves 7 states (plus DC) still accepting some or all enrollments as of today:

Last Sunday I decided to round up all of the different "overtime period" policies onto a single page, which has been linked to as a resource by a bunch of media outlets. Today I'm doing the same thing for the Tax Filing Season special enrollment period, which has already been announced for 40 41 45 states as of 2/26:

I keep reading stories like this one at the Washington Examiner lately (about the GOP hand-wringing over the potential backlash if they "win" the King v. Burwell case at the Supreme Court):

GOP scrambles to keep Obamacare subsidies flowing in case of Supreme Court victory

There's an easy solution. See below.

...a Senate GOP working group has been meeting for months to figure out what to do should the challenge to Obamacare succeed.

There's an easy solution. See below.

...Republicans are working on their own plan..."We're not going to help the law, but we're going to help the people, so they are not left in the lurch."

There's an easy solution. See below.

What that means is Republicans are going to find a way to continue paying subsidies to the estimated 7.5 million Americans who receive taxpayer-funded help to pay their insurance premiums through the federal Obamacare exchange.

Mazel Tov to HealthSourceRI for being the first of the state-based exchanges to release their full 2015 Open Enrollment Period (with #ACAOvertime included) results. HC.gov released their collective total yesterday, but haven't broken it out by state yet; Kentucky released data through 2/19 but their extension period isn't over until Saturday; and I have a rough estimate for Massachusetts, but they won't release their official tally until tomorrow.

Meanwhile, here's Rhode Island's final count:

PROVIDENCE – HealthSource RI (HSRI) has released enrollment data, certain demographic data and certain volume metrics through Monday, February 23, 2015, for Open Enrollment and the Special Enrollment Period (due to previous weather closings at the contact center and walk-in locations).

that is all.

Yesterday, with the final HC.gov "weekly snapshot" report released, I was able to put together almost all of the puzzle pieces for 2015 open enrollment (there's still a few small pieces left...a month of Idaho data, plus the "overtime" data for California, Massachusetts and the other 12 state-run exchanges). My takeaway was that when the dust settles, the grand total of exchange-based QHP selections will be around 11.74 million people.

On the one hand, that's pretty darned good, and is a good 13% higher than the HHS Dept's official projection. On the other hand, it's still 760,000 fewer than my revised projection (12.5M), and 260,000 fewer than my original projection of 12.0 million even.

Almost lost in today's final* "weekly snapshot" report on Healthcare.Gov enrollment was this tidbit regarding the renewed enrollment breakout:

*(I really, really hope this isn't the final one...)

“More than half of the 4.17 million people who re-enrolled in coverage during Open Enrollment came back and actively selected a plan and more than half of those consumers selected a new plan,” said Andy Slavitt, Principal Deputy Administrator of CMS. “Based on my experience looking at enrollment trends with employer-sponsored coverage and Medicare, it is clear that Marketplace consumers are more active, engaged, and eager to shop for the coverage that's right for them.”

Important: Technically this is not the "final" comparison of 2015 (full year) vs. 2014 (full year), since there's still the upcoming "Tax Season" enrollment period, along with additional enrollments/policy cancellations throughout the rest of the year via qualifying life events (marriage, divorce, giving birth, losing/gaining a job, moving to a new state, etc).

However, in terms of the 6-month-plus-2-week 2014 period and the 3-month-plus-1-week 2015 period, this is as close as I can get to an apples-to-apples comparison.

The HHS Dept. projected roughly a 30% enrollment increase this year (10.4 million QHP selections, 9.1 million actual paid enrollments). I projected roughly a 56% increase (12.5 million selections, 11.0 million paid).

In the end, it split the difference towards the high end: Over 11.7 million selected, of which around 10.3 million either have or are about to pay for at least their first monthly premium. This corresponds to roughly a 46% increase over 2014.

It may sound strange for me to call this the "final" graph...after all, there's still data missing from the "overtime" period from all 14 of the state-based exchanges, including big ones like California and New York. Massachusetts and Rhode Island were even still allowing full open enrollment until Monday night. A few other states are still allowing "wait in line" enrollments through this Saturday.Plus, what about the special Tax Season enrollment period coming up (or even already started in a few states)? Finally, what about Idaho? Their data hasn't been updated since way back on January 17th!

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