Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing (nearly 400 for 2025!) for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:
This is gonna be one of the stranger references I've made on this site, but bear with me.
Back in 1996 there was an HBO movie called "The Late Shift" which told the story of the Late Night TV show battle between David Letterman and Jay Leno over who would succeed Johnny Carson as host of The Tonight Show. As stupid as this may sound today, this was actually a Really Big Deal in the '90's...one of those absurd pop culture stories which dominated the headlines and the tabloids for several years.
The movie itself was decent, with some interesting casting including Kathy Bates and Treat Williams, but nothing special. The main problem is that the audience is expected to root and feel sympathy for a couple of dudes who were already rich & famous and who would both continue to be rich & famous no matter how the story played out. The stakes weren't exactly the fate of the world, is what I'm saying.
9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:
Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:
Ever since the MAGA Murder Bill (officially H.R. 1, the so-called "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") was passed by Republicans in the U.S. Senate & House and signed into law by Donald Trump a few days ago, I've seen a growing conventional wisdom taking hold on social media: People keep claiming that either all, "nearly all" or at least "most of" the budget cuts & other gutting of various programs and departments won't actually kick in until after the November 2026 midterms.
Now, don't get me wrong--most of those making these claims are well-intentioned; they're saying this cynically, to underscore how disingenuous Congressional Republicans are by back-loading the pain until the midterms are safely in their rearview mirrors. And, to be fair, much of the damage won't being until well after next November.
Over at The New Republic, Greg Sargent has taken this thinking one step further, noting that by delaying so much of the ugliness of the new law until 2027 or beyond...
The projected average rate change for plans effective January 1, 2026 is 16.0% which is an average rate change of about $87 per member per month (pmpm). Because 16.0% (or about $87) is an average, it is possible to have a different rate change. Factors affecting a member's premium are age, tobacco use, family composition, plan, and geographic area. Expected cost differences by product are updated every year to ensure premium differences are appropriate. BridgeSpan has approximately 200 members enrolled in this line of business as of March 2025.
...The rate change described above is driven by the following factors:
Medical Trend : 9.1%
Change in Benefits, Age, Area, and Network : -1.5%
Change in Market Morbidity : 5.0%
Exchange User Fees : 1.0%
Other : 2.0%
Other includes: actual results vs. expected, changes to admin expenses, and rx rebates. Actual results vs. expected reflect differences between actual results and past assumptions, including a true-up of market morbidity estimates
In the most recent chapter of the ongoing 2026 Arkansas rate filing saga, I noted that both the total number of residents enrolled in ACA individual market policies as well as the average 2026 rate increases for the six insurance carriers participating in the individual market next year kept changing, often in ways which were contradictory with other numbers claimed within the same press releases:
You'll notice that in addition to the rate changes being updated (increasing from a weighted average hike of 26.2% to 35.7%), most of the current enrollee figures were also modified, although these only changed slightly in most cases. Overall the total number of current individual market enrollees statewide dropped a bit from ~354,000 to ~345,000.
Minor changes like this aren't unusual; sometimes the carriers make slight tweaks as more recent data comes in or clerical errors are corrected; other times they round off the enrollee totals (that doesn't seem to be the case here, however).
Iowa Code §505.19 requires the Commissioner to hold a public hearing on a proposed individual health insurance rate increase which exceeds the average annual health spending growth rate as published by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services of the United State Department of Health and Human Services. For 2026 the growth rate is 5.6%.
The Iowa Insurance Commissioner will hold a public hearing regarding the relevant rate increases on August 19, 2025.
The purpose will be to hear public comments on the proposed increase in the base premium rate. Consumers wishing to make a public comment at the hearing are encouraged to attend the hearing via the live webcast.
All comments received will be considered public records and will be posted here. The Consumer Advocate will present the public comments received at the hearing.
Iowa has around 136,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,600 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Oregonians continue to have at least five health insurance companies to choose from in every Oregon county as companies file 2026 health insurance rate requests for individual and small group markets
In-depth rate review process just beginning, opportunities for public review and input remain through June 20
June 2, 2025
Oregon health insurers have submitted proposed 2026 rates for individual and small group plans, launching a months-long review process that includes public input and meetings.
Five insurers will again offer plans statewide (Moda, Bridgespan, PacificSource, Providence, and Regence), and Kaiser is offering insurance in 11 counties, giving six options to choose from in various areas around the state.
A Washington Post poll conducted on Oct. 1, the first day of the shutdown, found that 47% of U.S. adults blame Trump and Republicans in Congress, while 30% blame Democrats and 23% said they're not sure.
The survey found that independents blamed Trump and Republicans over Democrats by a wide margin of 50% to 22%. And one-third of Republicans were either unsure who to blame (25%) or blamed their party (8%).
Federal subsidies that reduce the cost of Affordable Care Act health insurance plans are scheduled to end at the end of this year. Should these subsidies...
