On All In with Christopher Hayes last night, former GOP Senator Judd Gregg gave an incoherent, nasty and just plain bizarre appearance in which he not only tried to claim that only 4 million people have gained insurance since the ACA was implemented (versus the actual net gain of 14-15 million), but actually tried to mock and insult Hayes when the host tried to correct him...by claiming that Hayes' numbers were the ones which were off.

I'll post the transcript below later, bit here's the actual clip...it's really difficult to capture the sheer craziness of Gregg's ramblings (thanks to Crooks & Liars for the video)

Hot on the news that HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell decided to channel the Bridgekeeper from Monty Python & the Holy Grail ("Right! Off you go then!!") when it came to Pennsylvania and Delaware's "state-based exchange" requests, here's what's going on in three other states facing possible tax credit loss from an adverse King v. Burwell decision:

ILLINOIS: Hospital group says Illinois could lease Healthcare.Gov

A hospital group in cash-strapped Illinois says the state might be able to set up a health insurance exchange at a lower cost by "leasing" the federal government's technology, an option that could appeal to as many as 34 states where subsides could be jeopardized by an unfavorable U.S. Supreme Court decision.

THIS JUST IN...

CMS today conditionally approved Delaware and Pennsylvania to operate State-based Marketplaces (SBMs)" #kingvburwell @charles_gaba

— Dan Mangan (@_DanMangan) June 15, 2015

Obama administration has approved Pennsylvania and Delaware’s blueprints to become state-based ACA exchanges next year.

— Dylan Scott (@dylanlscott) June 15, 2015

To put it less cruelly, here's a great story by Sarah Kliff of Vox about the real-world impact on one woman in Texas:

Schramm has colon cancer. Doctors diagnosed it this fall, after she started feeling stomach pains during an RV trip through Tennessee. Doctors there removed the tumor, and she's now in Austin receiving chemotherapy, which should continue through this summer.

Schramm isn't sure if she will still be able to afford her health insurance come June. She's among the 6.4 million Americans receiving subsidized coverage through Healthcare.gov. A pending Supreme Court case, King v. Burwell, argues that these subsidies are illegal — that the White House does not have the legal authority to give people like Schramm financial help.

...But Schramm doesn't really have the luxury of living without a back-up plan. She knows she needs chemotherapy and knows she can't afford it without health-insurance coverage.

So, the Supreme Court did not announce their decision re. King v. Burwell this morning...but they have added an extra, non-Monday date for decision announcements...namely, this Thursday, June 18th at 10:00am.

There are 17 decisions left to announce this session, so they could add even more dates, but assuming they don't, this means that the possible decision dates are now reduced to this Thursday, next Monday the 22nd or the following Monday the 29th.

Here's the kicker: If they do make the announcement 3 days from now, I may not be able to post anything about it until several hours later.

For one thing, I'll be pretty exhausted that morning from catching the Red Eye back from Atlanta, Georgia, where I'm addressing the Society of Actuaries on Wednesday the 17th.

I've made a slight modification to The Graph. Instead of projecting just how many would lose their tax credits, the new version plots the likely total loss of actual QHP enrollees either directly (i.e., those who lose their credits...around 6.5 million) or indirectly (i.e, those who are currently paying full price for their premiums but would likely have to drop that coverage due to the massive (50%+) rate hikes being projected by several studies in response to the adverse selection factor...around 1.5 - 2.0 million by my estimates).

Since the ACA requires insurance companies to continue coverage for existing policyholders for 90 days after they fail to make a payment, most of the expected drop-off probably wouldn't officially happen until the end of September (assuming that the tax credits are actually cut off starting with the July premiums).

A couple of weeks ago, I noted that the all five of the Republican Party's assorted "fixes" for their plaintiff winning King v. Burwell have basically been given "junk" status by the American Academy of Actuaries...who aren't exactly known for sticking their noses into public policy debates. These guys are about the least-political, most level-headed bunch around, and they just took a giant dump on the GOP's half-baked KvB "fixes" only a few months after sending a pretty urgent open letter to HHS Secretary Sylvia Burwell in which they stressed that a King plaintiff win, without either Congress or the states taking action to resolve the issue, would likely resolve in massive rate hikes and disruption of the entire individual insurance market.

...by retired US Navy Chief Warrant Officer Jim Wright, aka Stonekettle, instead.

Also, I may have forgotten to mention, King is a Vietnam Veteran, and he could get free healthcare through the VA and be exempt from having to buy healthcare insurance out of pocket at all. This entire fight is a scam – what? You thought a limo driver could fund a legal fight all the way to the Supreme Court on his own, did you? You’re so darned cute. King is nothing but a conservative stalking horse who wants to screw six million people out of medical coverage while he himself gets taken care of under a federal healthcare program.

Read the whole thing.

I've written a lot about how the 2016 policy rate increase request numbers flying around in scary-sounding headlines at the moment are misleading for a bunch of reasons:

Today I've learned of another example of why it's silly to start wringing your hands yet. This morning I received the following tweets

Of the 6.5 million people who would lose their federal tax credits, and almost certainly their healthcare coverage (completely apart from the additional 6.5 million who would have an economic boulder dropped on them indirectly) in the event of a King v. Burwell plaintiff win, over 1/3 live in just two states: Florida and Texas. 1.34 million Floridians and 846,000 Texans would be be among the direct casualties...close to 2.2 million between the two of them.

Given that both are completely run by off-the-rails batcrap-insane Republicans in the House, Senate and Governor's office, it's safe to say that you can expect a LOT of stories like the following from the Sunshine and Lone Star states.

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