Florida has over ~4.7 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized. I also estimate they have perhaps ~112,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Combined, that's over 4.8 million people, or a stunning 20.3% of their total population. 1 in 5 Floridians are enrolled in ACA exchange healthcare coverage (assuming CMS's 6.6% net national attrition rate applies to Florida specifically, the actual number of current enrollees is more like 4.5 million, or 19% of the state population).
Originally posted 7/21/25; See important updates below.
It's a little awkward to try & pull quotes from Georgia's actuarial memos because they're heavily redacted (see attachments below), but fortunately I also have access to other "just the facts" filing documents which include the hard data I need to compile my weighted averages. These forms--officially called "Rate Filing Transmittal Form LH-T1" and "Unified Rate Review" forms--include, among lots of other numbers, the preliminary avg. rate change being requested for the carrier's individual (or small group) market plans, as well as the number of current effectuated enrollees they have.
In addition, I have alternate rate filings for Georgia individual market carriers which specifically state what their requested rate changes would be if the enhanced premium tax credit subsidies provided by the American Rescue Plan Act & Inflation Reduction Act were to be extended for at least one more year, providing a clear apples to apples comparison.
South Carolina has around ~632,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~36,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
Georgia has around ~1.5 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 93% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~30,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
BCN is filing a year-over-year average rate increase for 2026 for all individual products that were offered in 2025 of 16.3%. Significant contributors to rate change are outlined in the table below:
Experience Restate 4.0%
Medical and pharmaceutical price and utilization trend 5.4%
ARPA Subsidy Expiration Impact 4.6%
Benefit Change and CSR -2.6%
Margin Impact 1.2%
...Incorporated in the above, BCN assumed an additional pharmacy price trend due to tariffs, as follows:
Generic +2.5%
Brand +10%
Specialty 0%
Total Impact +2.5%
...Consistent with the 2025 filing, BCN has assumed no CSR payments will be made by the federal government for 2026. Therefore, rates for Silver plans offered on exchange are 20.5% higher than if the federal government funded CSR subsidies.
Michigan has around 531,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 91% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~64,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.
The proposed rate change of 27.3% applies to approximately 204,837 individuals. Absolute Total Care’s projected administrative expenses for 2026 are $90.21 PMPM. Administrative expense does not include $17.94 for taxes and fees. The historical administrative expenses for 2025 were $78.35 PMPM, which excludes taxes and fees. The projected loss ratio is 82.6% which satisfies the federal minimum loss ratio requirement of 80.0%.
Pennsylvanians can submit comments on rate requests and filings through September 2
Harrisburg, PA – The Pennsylvania Insurance Department (PID) today announced that the 2026 rate changes requested by insurance companies currently operating in Pennsylvania’s individual and small group markets are now available. On average, all Pennsylvania health insurers are requesting premium increases in plan year 2026: 19% increase to premiums in the individual market (for people who buy their own insurance), and a 13% increase to premiums in the small group market (for small businesses).
Last week I noted that six states have launched window shopping for the 2026 ACA Open Enrollment Period (OEP), allowing residents of the following states to plug their household information into their states ACA exchange website to see just how much their net health insurance premiums are going to increase starting January 1st, 2026:
California has ~1.98 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, over 88% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an estimated ~470,000 off-exchange enrollees. Combined, that's over 2.4 million people, or 6.2% of their total population.
