NATIONALLY, unsubsidized ACA premiums to jump *ANOTHER* ~15% next year

I've finally completed my state-by-state individual & small group health insurance market analyses of the preliminary 2027 rate filings for all 50 states (+DC), so it't time to take a moment to check in and see where things stand overall.

There's some important caveats, of course:

• In some states I had to make an educated guess as to the effectuated enrollment as of spring 2026 for some insurance carriers due to this data being redacted. As a result, while the average rate increases are fully weighted in most states, there are some where it's "semi-weighted"...that is, I have the hard numbers for some carriers but estimated enrollment data for others.

• There's one exception to both of these: Florida has strict "Trade Secret" regulations which means all of the enrollment data is redacted, meaning the 15.3% average in the table below is unweighted. This also means that I don't know the total enrollment across the individual market for Florida either, although I do have the on-exchange enrollment as of February.

• Since Florida's carriers are seeking rate hikes ranging from just 3.9% to 39%, and since Florida has by far the largest ACA enrollment in the country, this means if the weighted statewide average turns out to be significantly higher or lower than 15.3% it could skew the national average higher or lower by a couple of points as well.

• Remember, these are preliminary filings only: These are the rate changes requested by the insurance carriers. State insurance regulators have been going over the filings and will be issuing final decisions over the next few weeks if they haven't already. In the past I've found that the preliminary filings are usually approved of as is or with only minor changes, but sometimes regulators will significantly cut the hikes down...while in other cases they may actually increase them more than the carrier requested in order to make sure the carrier can cover their claims for the following year.

So far I've found three states which have issued final, approved rate changes: In Vermont and Maine, the overall weighted average was reduced by a couple of points, but in Oregon the average actually increased from 17.2% to 21.6%.

There's some other caveats for various states which can be found by reading their individual analyses, but for the most part the table below should be reasonably accurate.

With all of that said:

• Total ACA-compliant individual market enrollment as of March/April 2026 seems to have been roughly 20.6 million, with perhaps 18.6 million on-exchange and up to ~2 million or so enrolled in off-exchange policies. This includes some assumptions about Florida and a few other states as noted above, however.

• For preliminary filings, the weighted average increases being requested range from as little as 6% in Arkansas to as much as 22.9% in Arizona.

• In dollar terms, average 2027 monthly premiums will range from $576/month in Idaho to as high as $1,542/month in West Virginia...nearly 2.7x as much.

• In addition to West Virginia, there are several other states where the average unsubsidized premium will be more than $1,000/month next year: Alaska, Connecticut, Vermont and Wyoming.

• Overall, national, mostly-weighted average rates for unsubsidized ACA enrollees looks like it will be around 15.2% higher next year.

• The average 2026 premium is around $741/month, so for 2027 that would mean roughly an additional $113/month for unsubsidized enrollees, or around $854/month nationally.

• That's over $1,300/year extra per unsubsidized enrollee on average.

Here's what this looks like visually, with states ranked from lowest to highest average percent increase (click below for higher-res version):

Here's the states ranked from lowest to highest average 2027 premium in actual dollars. Again, remember, this is for UNSUBSIDIZED enrollees only: