When I crunched the numbers for Florida's individual market back at the beginning of August, I had to make certain assumptions based on missing data. Even though I had hard numbers for many of the missing market share/enrollment fields, there were still major gaps, especially on the "companies requesting increases of under 10%" side.

I ended up with three potential scenarios for the requested weighted average increase in the Sunshine State: A best-case scenario of 8.6%, a "most likely" scenario of 10.3% and a worst-case scenario of 12.0%. In the interest of caution, I plugged the "most likely" number (10.3%) into my national average spreadsheet, and assumed it'd be somewhere between that and 12% publicly.

OK, the bad news is that the requested 2016 individual market rate increases in Kansas were somewhere around 28%, with some as high as 38%. This would have looked something like this:

Ouch. The good news (well...relatively good, anyway), is that in the end, the approved rate hikes are considerably less...although still not pretty:

Premiums for Kansas health insurance plans offered in the federal marketplace won’t increase as much as originally proposed, state Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer said Tuesday.

Kansas Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer said Tuesday that premiums for health insurance plans offered in the federal marketplace won’t increase as much as originally proposed.

Way back in early June, Washington State reported that the overall average requested individual market rate increases for 2016 came in at 5.4%, which is pretty darned good.

Just now, the state insurance commissioner reported that the approved weighted average increase next year will be even lower: Just 4.2%:

OLYMPIA, Wash. –The Office of the Insurance Commissioner has approved 136 individual health plans from 12 insurers who will offer them to the Exchange, Wahealthplanfinder, for sale in 2016. The Washington Health Benefit Exchange Board is scheduled to certify the approved insurers and their plans at its board meeting later today.  

The companies requested an average rate change of 5.4 percent, but 4.2 percent was approved.

Yes, I'm back. From what I can tell, the major Obamacare/health insurance-related stories while I was out were a) Scott Walker/Marco Rubio finally releasing their proposed "replacement plans" (such as they are) for the ACA, and b) the approved 2016 rate changes for ACA-compliant individual/small group policies across a whole mess of states (technically all 50 states +DC had to be finalized as of 2 days ago, but it'll still take awhile to dig up all of them, since many news stories & reports may leave out off-exchange plans, increases of less than 10% and/or actual market share for weighting purposes).

I'm ignoring the Walker/Rubio story for the moment, mainly because they're both complete jokes, but will write up something about that later. For now, let's dive into the approved 2016 rate change story, starting with Arkansas.

(ok, I actually have a general idea of the basics, and will be posting a bunch of stuff tomorrow, but feel free to fill me in in the comments in case I missed anything significant).

If some major development occurs I'll post it (and I'll probably be posting links to stuff via Twitter and Facebook here and there), but otherwise don't expect much in the way of site updates until next Thursday.

Meanwhile, thanks to Paul Krugman for his latest shout-out this morning!

UPDATE: Yeah, yeah, I saw the news about both Rubio and Walker releasing their "Obamacare Replacement Plans". As far as I can tell, they're both the same warmed-over crap that the GOP has been farting around with for 5 years now, a mish-mash of "Obamacare without the Obama part", with "selling across state lines" added and "regulations requiring insurance companies not to act like complete jerkfaces" removed. I'll probably write up something about it when I get back next week, but that's my initial reaction.

As I've noted before, "The Daily Signal" is a front site for the right-wing think-tank-turned-propaganda-machine Heritage Foundation.

In their latest bit of silliness, they've come up with a modified version of Sharyl "a stuck key on my computer means Obama is spying on me!" Attkisson's laughable butchering of math last year.

When Attkisson posted her phantom numbers, one of the biggest ways she came up with her phony tally of how many people have gained healthcare coverage was to simply ignore Medicaid expansion completely. Apparently Medicaid "doesn't count" as healthcare coverage for some reason or another (or perhaps it's the other way around: To conservatives, anyone who qualifies for Medicaid apparently "doesn't count" as a human being). As a result, she was able to lop off about 6.1 million newly enrolled Medicaid recipients at the time (this is now up to perhaps 10 million newly covered out of the 14.5 million or so who've been added to the Medicaid rolls since the ACA was enacted).

This time around, a "Melissa Quinn" has posted a 700-piece article which purports to blow the lid off the most shocking scandal of the decade:

Vermont was one of the earliest states to report their requested rate hikes back in mid-May. Due to Vermont's small size (both in total population as well as insurance providers...there's only two of them even operating on the individual markets), as well as their unique law requiring that all individual policies be purchased through the ACA exchange, they were also one of the easiest to calculate.

In addition, as far as I can tell, in Vermont, both the individual and small group markets are considered part of the same rate pool, although the market share differences between the two still resulted in slightly different weighted averages: 7.8% for the individual market, 8.1% for the small group market. These were slightly revised to 8.0% and 8.3% just prior to the review/approval process.

Yesterday the state regulators announced the final approved rates for both BCBSVT and MVP...and lo and behold, they've shaved off several points in both the individual and small group markets:

OK, now that I've gotten that out of my system, let's look at today's CMS report itself:

2015 Special Enrollment Period Report – February 23 – June 30, 2015

The next open enrollment period for Marketplace coverage begins on November 1, 2015 for coverage starting on January 1, 2016. Some people can sign up for health coverage outside of open enrollment, before November 1, because they qualify for a special enrollment period (SEP). A consumer can qualify for a SEP for such circumstances as loss of health coverage, losing Medicaid eligibility, changes in family status (for example, marriage or birth of a child), or other exceptional circumstances.

This snapshot provides information about consumers who selected a plan between February 23 and June 30, 2015 through the HealthCare.gov platform, which includes 37 states with Federally Facilitated Marketplaces, State Partnership Marketplaces, and supported State-Based Marketplaces.

Some Guy, July 29th:

Assuming my ballpark estimate of appx. 7,500 Off-Season QHP Selections Per Day is accurate, the grand total nationally should be breaking the 13 million milestone right about...now-ish (or at least sometime this week).

Some Guy, 10:45am this morning:

#ACASignups I'm pretty sure QHP selections just broke 13.1 million nationally: http://t.co/lNqkAw6WsX #ACA #Obamacare pic.twitter.com/U0fD2mTuMT

— Charles Gaba (@charles_gaba) August 13, 2015

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