Charles Gaba's blog

No sooner had the January CMS report come out then wham, a new update from Kentucky...unfortunately it's actually a drop in QHP enrollments, since the prior 59K estimate was based on a very general statement by KY Gov. Beshear. As a result, QHPs drop about 5K (from 59K to 54,369) while Medicaid/CHIP enrollments go way up (from 185K to 210,545).

Under @kynectky so far, 210,545 have qualified for Medicaid coverage and 54,369 have purchased private insurance. #ACA

— Joe Sonka (@joesonka) February 28, 2014

OK, to repeat: The January CMS Medicaid/CHIP Report has finally been released:

According to a new CMS report released today, between October and January, more than 8.9 million individuals were determined eligible for Medicaid or CHIP through state agencies and through state-based Marketplaces. More than 2 million people were informed in January that they are eligible for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP); more of those individuals are in states that have chosen to expand Medicaid coverage to more of their residents.

Details to follow, keep watching this space... (or "developing" as some would put it...)

According to a new CMS report released today, between October and January, more than 8.9 million individuals were determined eligible for Medicaid or CHIP through state agencies and through state-based Marketplaces. More than 2 million people were informed in January that they are eligible for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP); more of those individuals are in states that have chosen to expand Medicaid coverage to more of their residents.

Vermont continues to have impressive enrollment numbers (relative to their population size) despite their ongoing technical problems, partly due to an aggressive SHOP/Small Business enrollment program. Private QHPs have somehow more than doubled from 13,514 paid / 3,392 unpaid as of 2/10 up to 28,486 paid / 4,805 unpaid as of February 25th.

Meanwhile, the SHOP enrollment numbers are also impressive, jumping from 29,200 at the beginning of the year up to 40,000 as of 2/25.

In addition, the article claims that the 28.4K figure only represents policies, not people, which suggests that the actual number of individuals could be as many as 51,200, but I'm already finding it difficult to believe that they've managed to go from 13.5K to 28.4K in just 2 weeks in the first place, so I'm holding off on that factor for now.

The latest figures from the Department of Vermont Health Access, presented to lawmakers Wednesday, show 33,291 individuals have selected a plan and 28,486 are fully enrolled...

After being cited by both the Washington Post as well as PolitiFact as one of only two sources for a reasonably accurate tally of ACA-enabled Medicaid/CHIP expansion (Avalere Health is the other one, although their analysis only included data through the end of December), I decided to go back and review my methodology. I've pored over both the HHS and CMS reports again, as well as reviewing the "Targeted Enrollment Strategy" and other special "bulk transfer" cases.

Looks like the previous update claiming over 5K in Hawaii was mistaken. Not that it makes much difference, but I have to lower HI's tally by 533:

Total for the period of Feb. 16, 2014 through Feb. 22, 2014:

4,467 Enrollments in the Individual Marketplace

Nevada's latest update as of 2/22: Paid QHPs have shot up 2,095 from 17,047 to 19,142; unpaid QHPs are down 702 to 7,893 from 8,595, which means that Nevada, like Washington yesterday, is starting to convert unpaid enrollments to paid more quickly. Total enrollments are therefore up just 1,393.

Update as of 2/22: 27,035 consumers have confirmed QHP selections through Nevada Health Link, 19,142 have paid.

— Nevada Health Link (@NVHealthLink) February 26, 2014

These new enrollees are not all from February; they actually have been scattered throughout the entire enrollment period to date, some going as far back as October or November...but they're not actually being added until this week. This brings the total number of new Medicaid enrollments for Ohio to 129,000:

COLUMBUS, Ohio (AP) -- Ohio officials are preparing to receive more than 106,000 applications for Medicaid-eligible residents who sought health coverage through the federal insurance marketplace.

The first batch of cases, which had been in limbo for months, could be transferred as soon as Wednesday, said Greg Moody, director of the Governor's Office of Health Transformation.

Minnesota's official enrollment figures as of 2/24 are up slightly from a few days ago...Private QHPs are up just 434 people to 31,522 while Medicaid is up 3,015 people to 73,271.

After having my enrollment projection model confirmed by the administration twice in the past week, I thought this would be a good point to see how close I've gotten various milestones since I started this thing:

Private QHPs: Total thru the end of December
ACA Signups, 12/25 2,100,000 98.24% accurate
Actual (HHS), 1/13 2,137,630
Medicaid/CHIP: Total thru the end of December
ACA Signups, 1/21 6,320,000 99.68% accurate
Actual (CMS), 1/22 6,300,001
Private QHPs: Total thru the end of January
ACA Signups, 2/07 3,300,000 99.98% accurate
Actual (HHS), 2/12 3,299,492
Private QHPs: Percent Paid
ACA Signups, 2/13 (10 AM) 75-80%

basically the same

New York Times, 2/13 (5 PM) 75-80%
Private QHPs: Total thru Feb. 19
ACA Signups, 2/19 3,860,000 at least 95% accurate
Pres. Obama, 2/20 "close to 4M"
Private QHPs: Total thru Feb. 24
ACA Signups, 2/25 (3:48pm) 4,013,762 99.66% accurate
Actual (HHS), 2/25 (5:59pm) 4,000,000

 

On a completely separate note, I should also point out that while the actual enrollment period for Private QHPs ends on 3/31/14, we won't know how many actual enrollments there are until mid-April, and we won't know how many paid enrollments there are until sometime in early to mid-May.

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