Charles Gaba's blog

Obamacare’s individual mandate is beginning to creep into outreach about signing up for health insurance this year.

The message is coming from two directions. Some outreach groups will move in the coming weeks to clearly mention the risk of rising penalties as they urge people to get covered before the enrollment season ends Feb. 15. And people who are getting an early start on their 2014 taxes — tax preparers say they expect the year’s first big surge in early February — will get a reminder of fines they may face for being uninsured last year and how much larger those fines could be one year from now if they say “No thanks” to Obamacare.

...But the mandate fines are going to start hitting home. As people start working on their 2014 tax forms, they will be able to see precisely how much they could pay in penalties for being uninsured last year. And it’s often more than the $95 they heard about.

No, I'm not gonna go into a "Dental Gate"-style rant against the HHS Dept. about this. Without knowing more details about the information in question or how it's being used, this may be another "nontroversy". Even so, it strikes me as being a bit of an unforced error on the part of the administration:

The government's health insurance website is quietly sending consumers' personal data to private companies that specialize in advertising and analyzing Internet data for performance and marketing,The Associated Press has learned.

The scope of what is disclosed or how it might be used was not immediately clear, but it can include age, income, ZIP code, whether a person smokes, and if a person is pregnant. It can include a computer's Internet address, which can identify a person's name or address when combined with other information collected by sophisticated online marketing or advertising firms.

Hot off the presses... HealthSource RI has posted their latest enrollment report; the new numbers are modest, but the payment data is rapidly improving; they're up to an 84% payment rate and the other 16% still have 6 days (from the 17th) to pay up.

DEMOGRAPHIC, AND VOLUME DATA THROUGH JANUARY 17, 2015

RENEWAL UPDATE
As of January 17, 2015, 81% of Year One customers have renewed (selected a plan) for 2015 (72% of renewing customers paid the first month’s premium).

Total New Customers: 7,660 (5,646 paid)
Total Renewed Customers: 21,129 (18,460 paid)

Total HealthSource RI enrollments for 2015 coverage: 28,789 (24,106 paid)

...Renewed Customers
2015 vs. 2014 Selection by Plan, by Metal Level and by Insurer

Like I did last week, I've plugged all 50 states (+DC) into a simplified version of The Spreadsheet.

With the release of the latest data from HC.gov less than an hour ago, here's where things stand:

  • At least 33 states have now reached the "official" 2015 QHP enrollment target laid out for them by either the HHS Dept (10.4 million nationally) or, in some cases, individual state governments/exchanges. Again, this means roughly 30% more enrollees than the April 19, 2014 total, but in some cases it's higher or lower (for instance, Florida only targeted enrolling about 9% more people this year than last, while New York is hoping to nearly double their 2014 total...and Massachusetts is a whole different game).
  • Another 6 states (Connecticut, New Hampshire, Ohio, Tennesse, Texas and Wisconsin) are all within striking distance (90%+) of HHS's target; all should easily break through over the next 3 1/2 weeks.
  • The states which are lagging include Colorado, Minnesota, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington State, which are all below 75% of the HHS/official goal as of their most recent update. Bear in mind, however, that some of these states are missing more data than the other states, so they may have made up some ground since the number shown.

Me, last Friday:

The HHS Dept's next "weekly snapshot" should have around 7.10M QHPs via HC.gov thru 1/16.

HHS Dept, Just Now:

I was off by about 56K, or 0.8% this week.

Yestetrday I noted that the MA Health Connector should be closing in on 100,000 QHP selections, having likely reached around 96.5K. They've since added 2,107 QHP determinations, which should mean roughly 950 more, bringing the state up to around 97.5K as of last night. MA's deadline for February 1st coverage is coming up on Friday, so there should be a mini-surge over the rest of this week. Medicaid enrollments have now reached 191K.

The DC exchange doesn't post updates often, but when they do it's simple, to the point data...and as a bonus, they're one of the few exchanges to include SHOP data (probably because they're one of the few where SHOP enrollments are above 4 figures, thanks to the weird ACA rule requiring Congressional staffers to enroll using it).

From October 1, 2013 to January 11, 2015, over 74,100 people have enrolled in health insurance coverage through DC Health Link in private health plans and Medicaid:

In my latest healthinsurance.org exclusive, I take a look at the off-exchange policy enrollment situation...and just like last year, I think a whole lot of people are going to be shocked when they realize just how many people are signing up for ACA-compliant Qualified Health Plans directly through their carrier.

In addition to this writeup, I'll be revisiting the off-exchange issue soon; I've already contacted 49 state insurance commissioner's offices (Vermont & DC don't have off-exchange enrollments anymore) to see how many are tracking those numbers on a more than annual basis.

Of course, this might have proven to be an exercise in futility. Aside from Oregon (and Washington State, though I have to confirm that for this year), the following should give you an idea of how tall an order this is:

Don't get me wrong, overall it was an excellent State of the Union speech, and his ad-libbed "I know, 'cus I won both of 'em!" line was perfection.

Having said that...

The Vermont exchange just released their latest numbers:

New Vermont Health Connect Customers

9,454 individuals have checked out a 2015 health plan. This includes 3,791 individuals in Qualified Health Plans (private health insurance) and 5,663 individuals in Medicaid or Dr. Dynasaur plans.

After a new customer checks out a plan, they must make an initial premium payment and have their selection processed before they have an active health plan. Of the 9,454 individuals who checked out, 7,981 have completed the enrollment process and have an active health plan (i.e., effectuated enrollment).  Of those who completed the process, 2,506 are on a Qualified Health Plan and 5,475 are on Medicaid or Dr. Dynasaur.

Renewing 2014 Vermont Health Connect Plans

Unless a customer requested otherwise, all individuals who had an active health plan through the end of 2014 currently have health insurance coverage through Blue Cross Blue Shield of Vermont, MVP Health Care, Medicaid or Dr. Dynasaur. The insurance issuers have their information in their systems and ID cards remain active.

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