The "quiet period" continues this week, with just 2,673 QHP determinations over the past 3 days. Assuming 45% followed through and selected a plan, that means roughly 115,100 QHPs to date. Meanwhile, Medicaid enrollments have reached 218,587.
The 51 states (including the District of Columbia) that provided enrollment data for November 2014 reported nearly 69 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP. This enrollment count is point-in-time (on the last day of the month) and includes all enrollees in the Medicaid and CHIP programs who are receiving a comprehensive benefit package.
444,324 additional people were enrolled in November 2014 as compared to October 2014 in the 51 states that reported comparable October and September data.
(And yes, the "51 states" wording is CMS's, not mine)
I woke up this morning to learn that Paul Krugman has given me another shout-out this A.M. This is about the 8th or 9th time he's linked to me, but only the 2nd time that he's mentioned me by name (usually it's just a text link to the relevant entry). The first time was last March, when he compared me favorably to the Lord of the Data Nerds, Nate Silver; this time my name is mentioned in the same paragraphs as Ezra Klein and Andrew Sullivan. Needless to say, I'm flattered and honored beyond measure.
A decision made more than three years ago by a committee that no longer exists might deal a major blow to Obamacare in South Carolina this summer.
...Former members of the S.C. Health Exchange Planning Committee say they weren’t aware in 2011 that their opposition to a state-based insurance marketplace might jeopardize so many people’s ability to pay for coverage.
“At no point in the committee’s discussion was there ever raised a concern that by opting into the federal exchange we were losing anything — especially subsidies,” said Tim Ervolina, president of the United Way Foundation of South Carolina and a former planning committee member. “I recall a very intense discussion with (former) Sen. (Mike) Rose, who stated that, after reviewing the law, he felt confident that we had nothing to lose and everything to gain by opting into the federal exchange.”
The percentage of Vermonters without health insurance has dropped to 3.7 percent, second lowest in the nation, according to new data from a survey of 4,000 households. Massachusetts, which mandates health insurance coverage, has the lowest percentage of uninsured.
Since the last state-sponsored survey, in 2012, the number of uninsured Vermonters declined from 42,760 to 23,231, according to weighted results.
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, Vermont's pool of potential private ACA exchange enrollees was around 44,000 people as of last April (ie, right after the 2014 enrollment period ended).
Those who follow this site regularly know that back on November 14th (the day before the enrollment period started), I originally projected 12.0 million even. I bumped this up by another half million on December 12th, after a particularly stellar 3rd week, and that's where it stood ever since: 12.5 million.
Earlier today I posted "Do I Hear 10 Million?", which served as both my estimated of HC.gov enrollments through today (7.45M), as well as noting that total QHP enrollments will likely cross the 10 million mark tomorrow (Saturday, Jan. 31st)...and I also threw in a reiteration of my projections through the end of the 2015 open enrollment period: 12.5 million as of February 15th.
Huh. The actual QHP numbers are fine--that is, Minnesota is still lagging behind where they should be, but they've added 201 over the past couple of days, which is fine given that we're in the slowest part of the enrollment period.
However...what's going on in the lower-left? "Advanced Premium Tax Credits" is the government-ese name for "Tax Subsidies'. In most states they're averaging somewhere between 80-90%...yet in Minnesota, it's less than 50%? What's up with that?
Let's suppose that the Supreme Court, against all logic, legal precedent, reason and decency, does end up ruling in favor of the plaintiffs in the King v. Burwell case and does indeed stop any federal tax credits/subsidies from being provided to people in states which are being run through the federal ACA exchange instead of their own. Let us further assume that this ruling does come out sometime in mid-June, 2015.
Let us further assume that the Republican-held Congress, being the colossal dicks that they are, do not take any action whatsoever--or, more likely, vote on a bill which would fix the "...state exchange" problem but would also have a completely unacceptable poison pill attached (ie, removing the individual mandate altogether, or killing the 80/20 medical loss ratio, or allowing insurance companies to deny coverage based on pre-existing conditions...you get the idea).
Here we go: The Massachusetts Health Connector has issued their weekly report, which confirms 113,887 QHP selections through last night, with 83% of those having paid their first month's premium and thus being fully enrolled. As I projected last week, the overall payment rate has risen by another 7%, and will likely continue to do so (of course, it will then "drop off" again dramatically during the final February surge, only to shoot back up again over the next few weeks as March enrollees start paying up).
Given the official 9.5 million confirmation a few days ago, this isn't going to be as surprising as it might otherwise have been, but it's still an important milestone which should be noted. I was originally estimating that total QHP selections would cross the 10 million mark last night, but after some tweaks I've adjusted this a bit, and am now estimating that we'll cross the 10 Million ACA Exchange-Based QHP Selection total on Saturday, January 31st.
(As a reference point for next Wednesday's "weekly snapshot", I'm also calling for today's HC.gov total to hit 7.45 million).
After that, we're into the February home stretch, which I'm expecting to play out roughly as follows:
Around 10.2 million by February 6th (35K/day)
Around 10.5 million by February 10th (65K/day)
And for the final 5 days, I'm expecting another major "Apple Store"-like surge: An average of 400,000 people per day for 5 days straight, for 12.5 million as of midnight, Feb. 15th.
