Charles Gaba's blog

Over the past few months, I've ranted repeatedly about what a stupid, short-sighted, petty move it is of Kentucky Governor Matt Bevin to shut down the kynect ACA exchange, for a variety of reasons...most of which center around the fact that the kynect exchange has been operating smoothly since the moment it launched in October 2013. In other words, there's very little reason to kill kynect, and plenty of reasons to keep it operational.

This does not mean that I'm opposed to moving any state-based exchanges over to Healthcare.Gov. As I said back in June, right after the King v. Burwell decision came out:

Covered California sent out an interesting press release today:

Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi visited the University of California, San Francisco (UCSF), today to highlight a new report showing that thousands of Californians who have obtained health insurance as a result of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act have received vital treatment — including brain surgeries, heart transplants, cancer treatment and trauma care — since January 2014, when the health exchange opened its doors.

“Today’s report is the latest evidence that the Affordable Care Act is delivering on the promise of making health care a right for all, not just a privilege for the few,” Pelosi said. “Covered California has been an enormous success. Thanks to this historic law, nearly 1.3 million Californians now have affordable coverage through the Covered California marketplace — and this data today makes clear that Californians are using this coverage to access vital, high-quality health care.”

Here's Connect for Health Colorado's latest enrollment update:

DENVER — Between Nov.1 and Jan. 15, more than 190,000 Coloradans enrolled in health coverage for 2016, either in private health insurance purchased through the state health insurance Marketplace or in Medicaid, or Child Health Plan Plus (CHP+), according to new data released today by Connect for Health Colorado® and the Colorado Department of Health Care Policy and Financing.

“These enrollment figures show strong growth during this open enrollment period,” said Connect for Health Colorado® CEO Kevin Patterson.  “But we are now only days away from this year’s enrollment deadline for many. I strongly urge everyone who does not have health insurance provided through their employer to act right now to provide financial security for their families and to avoid a penalty that experts estimate will average nearly $1,000 per household. The final deadline for 2016 coverage for many Coloradans is Jan. 31.”

Back in early December there was a lot of discussion/debate about whether or not people were using Special Enrollment Periods to "game the system". The idea is that people may be waiting until after Open Enrollment ends, ginning up a "qualifying life event" to enroll off-season, quickly arranging for a bunch of pricey healthcare services/procedures and then dropping their policy as soon as possible. By taking advantage of the various lengthy grace periods as well as loose enforcement of those qualifying events, the concern is that insurance carriers are losing millions of dollars due to people who, to put it diplomatically, aren't taking the "spirit" of the ACA's coverage requirements to heart, so to speak.

As I noted at the time and reiterated a week ago, my own solution to this issue (however extensive it may or may not be) was pretty straightforward:

As I've noted before, aside from HealthCare.Gov itself, the Rhode Island exchange is the only state-based exchange which provides weekly updates on a consistent basis (the other exchanges range from no updates at all to monthly to a "whenever they feel like it" schedule). In addition, RI's updates cover the exact same 7-day periods as HC.gov's Snapshot reports, so they can often act as a bit of a harbinger of the larger report to come the following day.

On the other hand, Rhode Island is also a very tiny state, with enrollment numbers in the 30-40,000 range, so I have to be careful about extrapolating out to the federal exchange, which covers 38 states and likely has over 9 million people enrolled by now.

Having said that, here's HealthSource RI's latest numbers:

INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY ENROLLMENT • As of January 16, 2016:

Back on December 20, after the previous Democratic Presidential Primary debate, I said:

I'm actually kind of...disappointed by both of them, for different reasons (which is particularly stunning given that healthcare reform is such a major part of both of their platforms).

My problem with Sec. Clinton was that she had criticized Sen. Sanders healthcare plan on two fronts: First, by noting that the only formal plan he had presented at the time (from 2013) ceded too much authority over to the individual states (thus opening up the possibility of GOP-controlled states screwing around with everyone's coverage even more than they do under the ACA (ie, Medicaid expansion, state exchanges, etc). This may have been a valid attack. The part I had a problem with was when she went after his plan for "costing" $1.5 trillion per year without acknowledging that it would subtract the cost of all private insurance expenses (premiums, deductibles, etc.) from everyone (both employers and individuals):

DISCLOSURE: This is a sponsored post. HealthNetwork is a healthcare marketing company that reaches more than 15 million health insurance shoppers annually and connects consumers with health plans.

Sponsor Message: At HealthNetwork, we're entirely focused on improving the consumer experience when it comes to researching and enrolling in a health insurance plan. We are neither a health insurance broker, nor are we a "lead gen" company that collects information from consumers and resells it to third parties. We simply allow consumers to research their options and enroll in a plan in the method that is best for their specific needs - online, telephonically or even meeting face-to-face with a licensed insurance professional.

First, read this. Next, read this.

OK, all caught up? The national total was around 11.50 million QHP selections as of January 9th. Since I won't know how big of a difference the "Live Purge!" factor is making until well after the end of March (when the Q1 effectuation report comes out), I still have to work within the confines of how CMS has been reporting enrollments this season.

With that in mind, I've dropped my end-of-OE3 projection down from 14.7 million to somewhere between 13.8 - 14.2 million (call it 14.0 million even for simplicity).

In order to hit 14.0 million total, 2.5 million people will have to enroll in the final 3 weeks, most likely broken out something like:

Note: I tend to focus almost exclusively on the wonky "bean counter" side of the ACA at the expense of the human side. In addition, I haven't done a Guest Post in quote awhile, so this . one is ideal. Maurice Harris wanted to tell his story, a case study of how the ACA has helped him and his wife. You can find Maurice's other musings at his own blog, The Accidental Rabbi --Charles

Thank you Pres Obama and all in Congress who made Obamacare happen.

I’m sharing a screenshot of the adjusted insurance premium we will be paying even though it’s the kind of info I’d usually treat as very private. But because there are powerful political forces determined to get rid of the ACA should they ever get the chance, I feel it’s important to share our family’s concrete example.

(sigh) After the huge "live purge" piece I just posted, I really didn't need this addtional confusion...

With 17 days left of #OpenEnrollment:~189k individuals are enrolled in 2016 health coverage; including ~28k new members. #OE3

— MA Health Connector (@HealthConnector) January 14, 2016

That's an excellent number, and it's actually around 9,000 higher than the last formal update from the MA exchange...

...Unfortunately, it's also 7,600 lower than the 196,647 figure reported in the official federal ASPE report as of 12/28.

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