CMS releases January 2024 enrollment data: Medicaid/CHIP enrollment dropped another 1.0M as Medicaid Unwinding continued

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS):

• • In January 2024, 84,041,447 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP, a decrease of 1,056,384 individuals (1.2%) from December 2023.
  • 76,930,368 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid in January 2024, a decrease of 983,655 individuals (1.3%) from December 2023.
  • 7,111,079 individuals were enrolled in CHIP in January 2024, a decrease of 72,729 individuals (1.0%) from December 2023.

• As of January 2024, enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP has decreased by 9,826,559 individuals (10.5%) since March 2023, the final month of the Medicaid continuous enrollment condition under the Families First Coronavirus Response Act (FFCRA) and amended by the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023.
  • Medicaid enrollment has decreased by 9,800,191 individuals (11.3%).
  • CHIP enrollment has decreased by 26,368 individuals (0.4%).

• Between February 2020 and March 2023, enrollment in Medicaid and CHIP increased by 22,992,937 individuals (32.4%) to 93,868,006.
  • Medicaid enrollment increased by 22,650,766 individuals (35.3%).
  • CHIP enrollment increased by 342,171 individuals (5.0%).

While the continuous coverage provision ended on March 31st, 2023 (thirteen months ago), enrollment in Medicaid actually continued to increase for one month more in April, to an all-time high of 94.1 million Americans.

According to KFF's Medicaid Unwinding tracker, as of mid-April 2024, at least 20.3 million people have lost Medicaid/CHIP coverage since last spring; those numbers will continue to be reflected in the official CMS Medicaid enrollment reports over the next few months.

On the upside, according to a different report via the HHS Dept, nearly 4.2 million of those who had lost Medicaid/CHIP coverage due to the unwinding process as of the end of December went on to enroll in either an ACA exchange policy or a Basic Health Plan policy (MN/NY). This represents 28.1% of the total "Unwinding" population through the end of January 2024.

Another 3.5% or so (at least 527,000) were found likely eligible for Medicaid/CHIP after all; presumably the vast bulk of them have since re-enrolled in those programs.

The fate of the remaining ~68% or so is unknown, however.

One important caveat: As always, it's important to note that CMS actually has two different reports on Medicaid enrollment: The monthly Medicaid & CHIP Enrollment Trend Snapshot (referenced above) and the Medicaid Budget & Expenditure System (MBES).

Each type of report includes some data that the other doesn't, but each also measures Medicaid enrollment a bit differently:

• The MBES report is 9 months out of date (through June 2023) while the Trend Snapshot is only 3 months outdated (through January 2024).

• The MBES count includes individuals enrolled in limited benefit plans and the Performance Indicator count does not include such individuals.

• The MBES data represents the count of unduplicated individuals enrolled in the state’s Medicaid program at any time during each month in the quarterly reporting period, while the Performance Indicator data captures the count of individuals enrolled on the last day of the month.

• The MBES count only includes individuals whose coverage is funded through Medicaid (title XIX of the Social Security Act), while the published Performance Indicator also includes individuals funded through CHIP (title XXI of the SSA).

• MBES and Performance Indicator data may be derived from different state systems.

• Retroactive state adjustments to MBES or Performance Indicator data may be in progress.

• States have likely generated MBES data and Performance Indicator data from state systems on different dates.

• The other major difference: The MBES reports include Medicaid enrollees in the U.S. territories: American Samoa, Guam, N. Mariana Islands, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Some of these actually cancel each other out: Some are higher in the Trend Snapshot reports while others are higher in the MBES counts. In fact, the MBES report put the grand total of Medicaid/CHIP enrollees nationally at 98.3 million as of June 2023, but again, the different definitions make this a bit fuzzy.

The MBES numbers for U.S. territories stood at 1.64 million Medicaid enrollees as of June 2023. If you add those to the Trend Snapshot total for the 50 states +DC, it comes in at 85.6 million as of January 2023.

It's also worth noting that ACA Medicaid Expansion enrollment specifically  was 23.2 million as of September 2023 according to preliminary data from a report by the Assistant Secretary for Planning & Evaluation (ASPE) last week. This puts total ACA Medicaid expansion down by around 1.5 million from the all-time high it reached in May 2023.