Weekly Update: U.S. #COVID19 vaccination levels by COUNTY & Trump 2020 Vote

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by FULLY vaccinated residents only (defined as 2 doses of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine or one dose of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population, as opposed to adults only or those over 11 years old (or even over 4 years old).
  • The 5 major U.S. territories don't vote for President in the general election, preventing me from displaying them in the main graph, but I have them listed down the right side.

With all this in mind, here's what things looked like as of November 22nd, 2021:

It's also important to note that after both the R2 (correlation) and slope formulas have pretty much plateaued over the past few weeks.

It'll be interesting to see what happens right after Thanksgiving now that the FDA has given final approval to the Pfizer vaccine for 5-11 year olds. Remember, the first batch of younger children will be getting their 2nd dose this week, which means they should start showing up in the vaccination data early next week:

Here's what the data above looks like in bar graph format, broken out in rough deciles (tenths of the total population, or around 33.1 million people apiece). The vaccination rate in the bluest tenth of the nation is still running 60% higher than the reddest tenth:

Other things especially worth noting:

  • Kalawao County, HI (pop. 82) is still the only one which is 100% vaccinated.
  • Counties with over 90% of their populations fully vaccinated have ~87,000 residents, including the above plus:
    • Dukes County, MA (pop. 20,600)
    • Nantucket County, MA (pop. 14,255)
    • Hudspeth County, TX (pop. 2,912)
    • Bristol Bay, AK (pop. 844)
    • Santa Cruz, AZ (pop. 47,669) (newly added!)
  • Counties with over 80% of their total populations fully vaccinated have ~206,000 residents, including the above plus:
    • Presidio County, TX (pop. 6,131)
    • San Juan County, CO (pop. 705)
    • West Feliciana Parish, LA (pop. 15,310)
    • Teton County, WY (pop. 23,331)
    • Apache County, AZ (pop. 66,021)
    • Rosebud County, MT (pop. 8,329)
  • 77 Counties with 31.1 million residents have over 70% of their total populations fully vaccinated.
  • At the opposite end, there's 15 counties which have vaccinated less than 20% of their total populations, with ~100,000 residents:
    • Slope County, ND (Pop. 706)
    • McPherson County, SD (Pop. 2,411)
    • McCone County, MT (Pop. 1,729)
    • McPherson County, NE (Pop. 399)
    • Holmes County, OH (Pop. 44,223)
    • Harding County, SD (Pop. 1,311)
    • King County, TX (Pop. 265)
    • Grant County, NE (Pop. 611)
    • Arthur County, NE (Pop. 434)
    • Storey County, NV (Pop. 4,104)
    • Garfield County, MT (Pop. 1,173)
    • Billings County, ND (Pop. 945)
    • Gaines County, TX (Pop. 21,598)
    • McKenzie County, ND (Pop. 14,704)
    • Crowley County, CO (Pop. 5,922)
  • Of counties with more than 100,000 residents, the following counties have vaccinated at least 75% of their total populations:
    • Marin County, CA (pop. 262,321)
    • Sumter County, FL (pop. 129,752)
    • Webb County, TX (pop. 267,114)
    • Miami-Dade County, FL (pop. 2,701,767)**
    • Montgomery County, MD (pop. 1,062,061)
    • Cumberland County, ME (pop. 303,069)
    • San Francisco County, CA (pop. 873,965)
    • Santa Clara County, CA (pop. 1,936,259)
    • Middlesex County, CT (pop. 164,245)
    • Barnstable County, MA (pop. 228,996)

**I find Miami-Dade's supposed vaccination rate highly suspicious based on their case rate since June, but whatever.

  • Of counties with more than 100,000 residents, the following counties have vaccinated less than 35% of their total populations:
    • Shelby County, AL (pop. 223,024)
    • Limestone County, AL (pop. 103,570)
    • Lee County, AL (pop. 174,241)
    • Warren County, KY (pop. 134,554)
    • Lowndes County, GA (pop. 118,251)
  • There are 49 counties with more than 1 million residents. Of those, the highest-vaxxed is Miami-Dade County, FL (77.8% vaxxed, supposedly) while the lowest-vaxxed is Wayne County, MI (home of Detroit), which has only vaccinated 48.2% of its population.