Minnesota

UPDATE: On the down side, I was off by 4% this time around.

On the up side, I UNDERESTIMATED:

Actual Feb. enrollments: 942,833, for a total of 4,242,325 thru 3/01/14.

Sarah Kliff at Vox just announced that the February HHS report is expected to be released today at around 4:00pm. A few items in anticipation of that:

• As I've noted several times, I'm projecting the report to total around 902,000 exchange-based private QHP enrollments for the month of February (technically 2/02 - 3/01)
• If accurate, this would bring the cumulative total of exchange-based private QHP enrollments to 4.202 million (from 10/1/13 - 3/01/14)
• From the data I have, the average daily enrollment rate in February was almost identical to that of January, which had about 1.146 million QHP enrollments. HOWEVER, the January report included five weeks of data (12/28 - 2/01), while the February report will only include four weeks (2/02 - 3/01). Therefore, even at the same daily average, it'll be about 20% lower no matter what.
• Don't be surprised if Peter Lee of CoveredCA decides to steal some thunder by announcing that California has enrolled 1,000,000 QHPs all by itself either today or tomorrow. However, that would include the past 10 days, while the HHS number will only run thru 3/01.
• If you want to get REALLY specific, call it 902,800 and 4,202,292.
• I've been dead-on target 6 times in a row without hyping up my projections beforehand. This time I am hyping myself up beforehand, so I'll probably be way off...but as long as I've UNDERestimated the tally, I'll be perfectly fine with that...
• The report will be released in about 5 minutes, but my kid gets home from school in about 10, so it'll be a good 20 minutes before I can really post anything. Feel free to follow Sarah Kliff of Vox in the meantime!

And another "mini-update" out of Minnesota...up another 2,000 total in 3 days to 115,001+. Still assuming a 30/70 QHP/Medicaid split until they release detailed numbers, based on existing data, which brings MN up to 34,600 QHPs / 80,401 Medicaid.

ST. PAUL, Minn. — MNsure announced today an addition to their television campaign that highlights the March 31 deadline to enroll in a qualified health plan. More than 115,000 Minnesotans have enrolled through MNsure to find comprehensive, affordable coverage, and with only 21 days left of the open enrollment period, MNsure is reminding Minnesotans to take action so they do not incur a penalty.

On the one hand, it's nice to see Minnesota post 3 enrollment updates in a single week. On the other hand, for some reason they didn't include the exact number or the QHP/Medicaid breakdown this time. Not sure why...it's already known that their private QHPs have been making up around 30% of the total until now, and the exact tally through 3/1 will be out next week sometime anyway; no point in trying to mask low numbers. Strange.

Anyway, I'm still assuming a 30/70 split, which would be another 300 QHPs and 700 Medicaid/CHIP on the pile, for a total of 34,000 / 79,001.

ST. PAUL, Minn. —  Today, MNsure announced more than 113,000 Minnesotans have enrolled in comprehensive, affordable health insurance coverage through the state’s new health insurance marketplace.

Another non-exact update; in a press release issued today, MNsure gives the combined total of QHPs & Medicaid enrollees as "more than 112,000", up around 3,000 from a few days back. As I did then, assuming the same 30/70 split that MN has had up until now, this means an increase of around 900 QHPs and 2,100 Medicaid enrollees. 

As always, these figures will be adjusted as necessary when the formal data is released by MNsure.

To date, more than 112,000 Minnesotans have selected health insurance plans on the MNsure online marketplace. Under the Affordable Care Act, consumers must enroll in health insurance coverage by April 1, 2014, or face a penalty. 

In an unofficial update, MNsure's CEO has confirmed the total number of exchange-based enrollments as "more than 109,000" total through March 2nd (the PR was issued on the 3rd). In the previous update (thru 2/24) had QHPs at 31,522 and Medicaid at 73,271 new enrollees (104,793 total), so the combined total has gone up at least 4,208. Assuming the current 30/70 split between private QHPs and Medicaid holds true, this brings Minnesota up to 32,784 and 76,217 respectively.

“Since October 1, more than 109,000 Minnesotans have secured affordable health insurance coverage through MNsure,” said MNsure’s interim Chief Executive Officer Scott Leitz

Minnesota's official enrollment figures as of 2/24 are up slightly from a few days ago...Private QHPs are up just 434 people to 31,522 while Medicaid is up 3,015 people to 73,271.

Minnesota issued an official update today (as opposed to the estimate that I came up with a few days ago based on a "nearly 95K" line in an unrelated press release); I was only off by 888 people on the private enrollment side, but by more than 5,500 on the Medicaid/CHIP side of the equation:

ST. PAUL, Minn. — Today MNsure announced that more than 100,000 Minnesotans have enrolled in quality, affordable health insurance through the state’s new insurance marketplace. MNsure is working to enroll thousands more Minnesotans in coverage before open enrollment concludes on March 31, 2014. Today’s new milestone highlights the progress MNsure has made to significantly improve its performance, and the services it provides to Minnesota consumers....

31,088 Minnesotans selected private health plans;
21,574 Minnesotans enrolled in MinnesotaCare; and
48,682 Minnesotans enrolled in Medical Assistance (MA).
101,344 total enrollments

This update/correction also makes a slight improvement in the overall Feb/Jan enrollment model (from 75.6% of January's total to 75.8%).

One more very small update today. This isn't an official data release, but this press release from yesterday mentions the total enrollment in Minnesota as being "nearly 95,000". This presumably includes enrollments through 2/17.

Assuming the same 32% / 68% ratio between existing private QHPs and Medicaid enrollments in Minnesota, this should break out to roughly 30,200 Private / 64,700 Medicaid, an increase of around 700 and 1,700 respectively.

Today, MNsure announced new TV and radio ads that tell the stories of Minnesotans who have used MNsure to find better, more affordable health care coverage. The ads highlight the affordability of MNsure plans and underscore the fact that MNsure offers the lowest premium rates in the country – with additional financial help available through tax credits. The ads are aimed at encouraging more Minnesotans to enroll in affordable, quality health coverage before the March 31 deadline. Nearly 95,000 Minnesotans have already selected health insurance through MNsure.

Minnesota's Private QHP enrollments went up a smidge from 28,611 to 29,493 the first week of February, while Medicaid enrollments increased from 61,784 to 63,005 (Medical Assistance + MinnesotaCare combined). Pretty weak tea, I have to admit.

Minnesota's Private QHP enrollments went up about 3% between January 18 and February 1st, from 27,775 to 28,611, while Medicaid/CHIP enrollments went up a more dramatic 18%, from 52,225 to 61,784 (when combining Medicaid & CHIP along with MinnesotaCare, which still counts).

Insurance sign-ups through Minnesota's health care marketplace continued to grow into February to more than 90,000 people, but enrollment continues to be weighted more toward public plans over private insurance.

MNsure released its latest enrollment measures on Wednesday, which covered mid-January through Feb. 1. By that date, more than 28,000 people had enrolled in commercial plans — an increase of about 3 percent from two weeks earlier.

In addition, Minnesota's SHOP (Small Business) exchange tally has gone up a bit as well, to 541 employees covered; multiplying this by a conservative average of 1.8 per employee household brings it up to around 974 people covered by MN SHOP plans.