2017 Rate Request Early Look: Missouri

OK, there's something very odd going on with Missouri's 2017 rate filings for the individual market. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, Missouri's entire individual market was around 344,000 people in 2014. While it's likely increased by around 25% since then, that would still only bring it up to around 430,000 people including both grandfathered and transitional enrollees, which sounds about right to me (290,000 enrolled via the ACA exchange, which would leave around 140,000 off-exchange).

And yet, when I plug in the official rate filings for Missouri's individual market for 2017, here's what it looks like:

Even without the three missing enrollment numbers from Aetna and Anthem BCBS, the grand total still breaks 1 million, or about 2.4x as many people as should be in MO's indy market. Most of the discrepancy can be found in the filings from Coventry Health & Life Insurance Co. (which isn't to be confused with Coventry Health and Life, for some reason).

As you can see, not only is each Coventry product listed with a separate and unique "current membership" number, one of these (CareLink & FocustedCare HPN) overwhelms everything else in the state with over half a million members all by itself. I'm not sure what to make of this, but assuming these ratios are somehow accurate, Missouri is looking at roughly 16% average requested rate increases next year.