Charles Gaba's blog

Rounding out today's "Net QHP Attrition Rate" Trifecta is Indiana, which, while not as deep-red as Tennessee, a) also has a Republican administration; b) hasn't expanded Medicaid; and c) refused to set up their own exchange.

This makes it all the more of a positive surprise to see that their ACA exchange QHP attrition rate is even lower than Tennessee--in fact, it's under 1%!!

The April 19, 2014 total for Indiana was 132,423 Hoosiers. Assuming an 88% payment rate and you get about 116,500.

I just learned that the number currently enrolled as of mid-October stands at 115,800...a drop of just 0.6%.

Excellent news!! I've posted exactly one (1) Tennessee-specific blog entry since I started this site a year ago, having to do with TN's possible caving on Medicaid expansion. Aside from that, I've had bupkus outside of the official monthly HHS reports during the First Open Enrollment period (OE1)...until today.

Today I learned that the number of Tennesseans currently enrolled in QHPs (as in currently in-force policies) via the federal ACA exchange stands at 125,704.

This is significant because the official 4/19/14 total for Tennessee was 151,352 people.

Assuming 88% of the original number paid their premiums, that would be about 133,200 as of last spring, which means Tennessee has only had about a 5.7% net attrition rate over the past 6 months.

Minnesota's exchange (called MNsure and pronounced to rhyme with "insure") has had it's share of technical problems, but they haven't been nearly as bad as the 4 state-run exchanges undergoing full overhauls (OR & NV are scrapping theirs entirely; MA & MD started over from scratch). They got hit with some bad news recently when the largest insurer on the exchange decided to bail, although that appears to have had more to do with that company's poor business decisions than anything on MNsure's side.

However, they've continued to keep chugging along, quietly adding more enrollees to both private QHP policies (via qualifying life events) as well as Medicaid and MinnesotaCare (neither of which have any deadlines involved). Most relevant to myself, they're also the only exchange which has continued to provide consistent, regular enrollment data updates on a near-daily basis, which is manna from heaven from my POV.

Last year, New Hampshire had but a single participant in the federal ACA exchange: Anthem BCBS. This year, not one, not two, not three, but four other companies have joined in

Two more insurance companies say they plan to sell policies in New Hampshire’s health exchange in 2015, bringing the total to five carriers. The suddenly crowded field is a sharp contrast to this year, when only Anthem is offering policies through healthcare.gov.

Harvard Pilgrim and Minuteman Health, both based in Massachusetts, announced their intentions to join the exchange earlier this year, and now the New Hampshire Insurance Department says Assurant Health and Maine Community Health Options have also submitted plans for regulatory review.

We don't have a full average-premium percentage breakdown like there are for other states, but this is certainly promising:

Only 66 more QHPs added over a 4 day period, but nearly 1,800 more added to either Medicaid or MinnesotaCare:

latest enrollment numbers 

October 26, 2014

Health Coverage Type Cumulative Enrollments
Medical Assistance 228,825
MinnesotaCare 78,770
Qualified Health Plan (QHP) 55,630
TOTAL 363,225

For five months now, I've been trying to unscramble Kentucky Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's word salad about what his post-Obamacare-repeal intentions are for the people of Kentucky.

To recap:

Repeal Obamacare > Repeal the ACA > Repeal kynect > Tear healthcare from 527K Kentuckians.

Today's New York Times has a pretty in-depth overview of how the ACA is doing. Overall it's very well done, though I do have a few quibbles about the sub-header "After a year fully in place..." because the law hasn't been "fully in place" for a year now, mainly because the employer mandate portion doesn't kick in until January (and most of the SHOP small business exchanges haven't been launched yet either).

Aside from that, though, it asks and tries to answer 7 major questions about where things stand:

Has the percentage of uninsured people been reduced?

Answer: Yes, the number of uninsured has fallen significantly.

Has insurance under the law been affordable?

For many, yes, but not for all.

Did the Affordable Care Act improve health outcomes?

Data remains sparse except for one group, the young.

Will the online exchanges work better this year than last?

Most experts expect they will, but they will be tested by new challenges.

Back in 2003, when the second round of the utterly unnecessary Bush Tax Cuts were doled out (jacking up the federal deficit for decades to come), I received my very own check from the IRS for something like $300 or so. I distinctly remember that it had, typed in the lower left-hand corner, "TAX RELIEF FOR AMERICA'S WORKING MEN & WOMEN".

As it happens, I donated the entire $300 to charity, since I had never asked for it and didn't want it. However, I always remembered the shamelessly partisan promotional nature of how it was done. A physical check with the actual dollar amount and a big, bold slogan referring to "relief" (the implication being, of course, that taxes are by their very nature a negative, awful thing which one needs relief from).

Little-Known Benefits of the ACA, Exhibit A:

When you think of the flu, the cost of getting sick probably isn’t the first thing that jumps to mind. But coming down with the virus can prove pricey.

A visit to the doctor’s office can run $80 to $100—or more. If you need to head to the ER on a night or weekend for care, the tab can easily total $500.

...The good news is that you probably don’t have to pay a penny for the best defense against the flu. Under Obamacare, a flu shot is free as long as you have health insurance (though plans that were in place before the law passed in 2010, known as grandfathered policies, are exempt). It’s one of the preventive services that insurers must fully cover without charging you a co-pay or co-insurance—even if you haven’t met your annual deductible yet. Under Medicare, you also pay nothing.

Little-Known Benefit of the ACA, Exhibit B:

Thanks to Margot Sanger-Katz for bringing this KFF study to my attention; Tricia Neuman has done an interesting study to try and predict how many of the appx. 7.3 million current ACA exchange policyholders are likely to make the move from their current policy to a different one (either through the same company or a different one).

She goes pretty deep in the weeds on some of it, but her takeaway is that, based on 3 other government healthcare programs (Federal Employee Health Benefits, Medicare Part D and the Commonwealth Care program in MA), it's likely that only about 7 - 14% of enrollees are likley to switch:

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