Monthly Update: County-level #COVID19 vaccination levels by Partisan Lean

COVID-19 Vaccine

Methodology reminders:

  • I go by county residents who have received the 2nd COVID-19 shot only (or 1st in the case of the J&J vaccine).
  • I base my percentages on the total population via the 2020 U.S. Census including all ages (i.e., it includes kids under 12).
  • The 5 major U.S. territories don't vote for President in the general election, preventing me from displaying them in the main graph, but I have them listed down the right side.
  • There are several counties which have supposedly surpassed 100% vaccination rates; obviously that's impossible, and is due to discrepancies in either the vaccination data or actual population counts. In addition, people have moved, died, etc. since the 2020 Census was locked in as of April 2020. With that in mind, I've started setting the maximum vaccination rate for any county at 98%.

With all this in mind, here's what things looked like as of June 8th, 2022:

And yes, the correlation (R^2) is still continuing to gradually inch its way upwards...in fact, the pace has increased a bit since last month...

...as has the slope angle:

  • There are now 20 counties where over 90% of their populations have received their 2nd shot, with ~1.06 million residents, including:
    • Bristol Bay, AK (pop. 844)
    • Apache County, AZ (pop. 66,021)
    • Santa Cruz County, AZ (pop. 47,669)
      • (Note: there's a serious discrepancy between the official CDC vaxx rate & the AZ Health Dept. for both Apache & Santa Cruz)
    • Imperial County, CA (pop. 179,702)
    • San Juan County, CO (pop. 705)
    • Kalawao County, HI (pop. 82)
    • West Feliciana Parish, LA (pop. 15,310)
    • Dukes County, MA (pop. 20,600)
    • Nantucket County, MA (pop. 14,255)
    • Big Horn County, MT (pop. 13,124)
    • Rosebud County, MT (pop. 8,329)
    • Hudspeth County, TX (pop. 2,912)
    • Maverick County, TX (pop. 57,887)
    • Presidio County, TX (pop. 6,131)
    • Starr County, TX (pop. 65,920)
    • Webb County, TX (pop. 267,114)
    • Charles City, VA (pop. 6,773)
    • Fairfax City, VA (pop. 24,146)
    • Norfolk City, VA (pop. 238,005)
    • Teton County, WY (pop. 21,073)
  • There are now 79 counties where over 80% of their total populations have received their 2nd shot, with ~26.2 million residents.
  • There are now 269 Counties with 101.6 million residents where over 70% of the total populations have received their 2nd shot.
    • 132 of these counties have more than 100,000 residents.
  • At the opposite end, over a year after all adults have been eligible to get vaccinated, there's still 21 counties which have vaccinated less than 25% of their total populations, with ~179,000 residents:
    • Winston County, AL (pop. 23,540)
    • Crowley County, CO (pop. 5,922)
    • LaGrange County, IN (pop. 40,446)
    • Cameron County, LA (pop. 5,617)
    • Garfield County, MT (pop. 1,173)
    • McCone County, MT (pop. 1,729)
    • Powder River County, MT (pop. 1,694)
    • Arthur County, NE (pop. 434)
    • Grant County, NE (pop. 611)
    • Logan County, NE (pop. 716)
    • McPherson County, NE (pop. 399)
    • Storey County, NV (pop. 4,104)
    • Billings County, ND (pop. 945)
    • Grant County, ND (pop. 2,301)
    • McKenzie County, ND (pop. 14,704)
    • Slope County, ND (pop. 706)
    • Holmes County, OH (pop. 44,223)
    • Harding County, SD (pop. 1,311)
    • Moore County, TN (pop. 6,461)
    • Gaines County, TX (pop. 21,598)
    • King County, TX (pop. 265)
  • There's still 6 counties with more than 100,000 residents which have vaccinated less than 40% of their total populations:
    • Lee County, AL (pop. 174241)
    • Limestone County, AL (pop. 103570)
    • Shelby County, AL (pop. 223024)
    • Lowndes County, GA (pop. 118,251)
    • Warren County, KY (pop. 134,554)
    • Livingston County, LA (pop. 142,282)
  • There are 49 counties with more than 1 million residents. Of those, the highest-vaxxed is Montgomery County, MD (87.1% vaxxed) while the lowest-vaxxed is Wayne County, MI (home of Detroit), which has only vaccinated 53.2% of its population.

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