New Mexico: Medicaid expansion enrollment up 10% since COVID struck; total Medicaid up 11%

I've once again relaunched my project from last fall to track Medicaid enrollment (both standard and expansion alike) on a monthly basis for every state dating back to the ACA being signed into law.

For the various enrollment data, I'm using data from Medicaid.gov's Medicaid Enrollment Data Collected Through MBES reports. Unfortunately, they've only published enrollment data through December 2020. In some states I've been able to get more recent enrollment data from state websites and other sources.

Today I'm presenting New Mexico.

For enrollment data from January 2021 on, I'm relying on adjusted estimates based on raw data from the New Mexico Dept. of Health.

New Mexico's total Medicaid enrollment (including ACA expansion) reached a peak of around 900,000 back in early 2017 before gradually dropping down to ~830,000 just before COVID hit last February. Since then, non-ACA enrollment has increased by 11.5% and ACA expansion has gone up 10.3% for an overall increase of 11.1%. New Mexico is the only state I've examined so far where the expansion population has increased by a smaller rate than the non-ACA population.

New Mexico has 2,117,552 residents according to the 2020 U.S. Census. As of April 2021:

• around 926,000 were enrolled in Medicaid overall, or nearly 44% of the population
• around 634,000 were enrolled in non-ACA Medicaid
• around 293,000 were enrolled in ACA Medicaid expansion.

• Add in the ~33,000 subsidized ACA exchange enrollees and that's around 326,000 New Mexicans who would lose healthcare coverage if the Supreme Court strikes down the Affordable Care Act, or 15.4% of the state population.