2022 Rate Changes

Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.

Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need. The actual data I need to compile my estimates are actually fairly simple, however. I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:

  • How many effectuated enrollees they have enrolled in ACA-compliant individual market policies;
  • What their average projected premium rate increase (or decrease) is for those enrollees (assuming 100% of them renew their existing policies, of course); and
  • Ideally, a breakout of the reasons behind those rate changes, since there's usually more than one.

Unfortunately, there are about a dozen states where due to the carriers and/or the state insurance departments heavily redacting the rate filing documentation, I've been unable to fill in the actual number of people enrolled by some or all of the insurance carriers within that state's individual market. This means that the average premium rate changes listed (shown in grey) are unweighted averages, not weighted.

This can make a big difference in some cases: Let's say you have 2 carriers in a state, one raising rates by 10% and the other raising them by 1%. The unweighted average increase would be 5.5%. However, what if it turns out that the first carrier has 90% of the market share while the second only has 10%? That would mean a weighted average increase 9.1%. The unweighted average is the best I can do for these states without knowing the market share breakout, however.

As of this writing, I've plugged in the preliminary (requested) 2022 statewide average rate changes for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia, giving a national average increase of 3.9% overall. I've also entered the final (approved) averages for 19 states so far. For those states, the national weighted average increase is a bit higher, 4.8%. This will likely drop as more final averages are entered in the coming weeks hover; the odds are high that once every state is filled in, the final average increase will be slightly lower than the preliminary average.

UPDATE 10/19/21: I've filled in the final/approved averages for Oregon, Indiana, Delaware, Connecticut and Idaho, which collectively whittle the final national average down from 4.8% to...4.6%.

UPDATE 10/21/21: I've managed to get hard enrollment numbers (allowing weighted changes) as well as approved rate changes for North Dakota, Arizona and South Carolina. In addition, Wisconsin's insurance dept. issued their weighted, approved average as well.

With these updates, the preliminary national average increases to 4.1%, while the approved average (across 29 states) is down to 4.2%.

UPDATE x2 10/21/21: OK, I'm on a roll today: I've also managed to get more accurate enrollment data for Alabama as well as confirming AL's approved rate changes, and have also filled in the enrollment data for Iowa carriers (again, confirming approved changes), which allowed me to run the weighted average statewide. None of these changes moves the needle on either preliminary or approved rate changes, however.

UPDATE 10/22/21: Added approved rate changes for Colorado, Michigan & Montana.

UPDATE 10/27/21: Added approved rate changes for Ohio, Tennessee, South Dakota, North Carolina & Arkansas, along with some updates/corrections to enrollment data & carrier participation for a few other states.  Also revised estimated total market enrollment for the 7 states which I don't have hard data available for.

UPDATE 11/02/21: Now that the 2022 Open Enrollment Period has officially launched, the federal Rate Review website has been updated with approved rates for all 50 states + DC, allowing me to fill in the remaining states.

Overall, it looks like the average unsubsidized rate increase is around 3.5% nationally.

(click image for higher-resolution version)

New York

OK, I'm a wee bit behind on this one (the press release is dated August 13th!), but here's the final, approved 2022 premium rate changes for New York's individual and small group markets:


New Jersey

via the New Jersey Dept. of Banking & Insurance:

NJ Department of Banking and Insurance Announces More Health Insurance Offerings in 2022, Record Levels of Financial Help Available for Another Year at Get Covered New Jersey

  • 9 in 10 enrolling on the marketplace qualify for financial help; majority of consumers receiving assistance can find a plan for $10 a month or less

TRENTON — The New Jersey Department of Banking and Insurance today announced that consumers shopping for 2022 health coverage this fall at Get Covered New Jersey, the state’s official health insurance marketplace, will continue to benefit from record levels of financial help available from the federal American Rescue Plan and the State of New Jersey. Consumers will also have more choice, with the entry into the market of a new health insurance company, Ambetter from WellCare of New Jersey, increasing the number of carriers offering plans on the marketplace.


via MNSure:

Minnesota Families Will Save an Average of $684 per Year and Access More Heath Plan Choices in 2022

ST. PAUL, Minn.—The Minnesota Department of Commerce and MNsure released information today on 2022 health plan rates and options in advance of the open enrollment period, which begins November 1.

On average, Minnesota families will save $684 per year and will be able to access more health plan choices than previous years. More Minnesotans than ever before are eligible to receive tax credits to lower monthly premium costs through federal funding provided in the American Rescue Plan. Minnesotans who buy their own individual health insurance for 2022 will have access to hundreds of dollars in savings when choosing health plans via MNsure. Minnesotans will also be able to choose from more health plan options being offered through MNsure.

District of Columbia

via DC Health Link:

District Announces 2022 Health Insurance Rates

(Washington, DC) - Today, the District of Columbia Department of Insurance, Securities and Banking (DISB) announced the 2022 approved individual and small business health insurance rates. As a result of the Department’s review, most insurers decreased their initial rate proposals, which will save District residents more than $16 million.

“On behalf of the Bowser Administration, DISB performed a thorough review of 157 small group plans and 27 individual plans to ensure that they meet the District’s standards and provide non-discriminatory, accessible and affordable health insurance for our residents,” said DISB Commissioner Karima M. Woods.

New Hampshire

The good news about New Hampshire's health insurance market is that they're the only state without its own ACA exchange which produces publicly-accessible monthly reports on individual on-exchange market enrollment. The bad news is that they don't seem to publish the actual rate filings in an easy-to-read format, which means I'm left with the federal rate review website. The problem with that is the rate filings are mostly heavily redacted, making it impossible to get the total enrollment data.

As a result, I only have on-exchange enrollment numbers for the individual market and no enrollment data for five of the six small group market carriers in New Hampshire. For the individual market, it looks like the off-exchange market only has around 7,000 enrollees, since nearly 48,000 are on-exchange.

Assuming similar ratios for the off-exchange market, that's a weighted average increase of 3.2%; if not, the unweighted average increase is just under 5.0%.


via the Nevada Insurance Dept:

Division of Insurance announces approved health insurance plans and rates for the individual health insurance market

October 1, 2021

  • Division announces approved health insurance plans and rates for the individual health insurance market
  • Nevada Consumers encouraged to view and compare health insurance plans and rates for 2022

Carson City, NV – In preparation for Open Enrollment next month, the Nevada Division of Insurance has made public the approved health insurance rates for consumers who shop on the individual health insurance market, both on and off the Silver State Health Insurance Exchange (Exchange), which is the state agency that oversees and connects eligible Nevada residents to affordable health and dental plans through Nevada Health Link.


Nebraska doesn't even bother listing indy/small group plan rate filings on their own insurance department website...the link goes directly to the federal Rate Review database. The problem with this is that very few filings here are unredacted, which means it's difficult to acquire the policy enrollees for many carriers needed to run a weighted average.

Fortunately, Nebraska has only 3 carriers for 2022...one of which is brand new to the state (Oscar Health), and of the other two, Medica's filing summary does include an exact number of enrollees. That leaves just Bright Health, and since I know (roughly) how many enrollees are in Nebraska's overall indy market, voila: 8.6% average rate increases.

On the other hand, I don't have the enrollment for any of the 4 Small Group market carriers. It also looks like UnitedHealthcare is pulling out of the NE sm. group market, but it might just be that the federal database doesn't have them listed yet (I doubt this since it's so close to the Open Enrollment Period). The unweighted average rate change is a 2.1% reduction:


See how simple that was, other state health insurance carriers?

Seriously, if every state displayed their annual rate filing data in as simple and clear-cut a fashion as Montana does, I'd be a much happier man. Admittedly, several others do, but the trickiest issue is usually getting the estimated enrollment numbers.

In any event, not much to say about Montana's ACA markets in 2022: No new carriers are jumping in, no current ones are dropping out, and the rate changes are pretty straightforward: +0.5% on the individual market, +5.2% on the small group market.

UPDATE 10/22/21: Well, it looks like the Montana Insurance Dept. has signed off on all 7 rate filing requests without making any changes, so I guess these are the approved rate changes as well:


Georgia's health department doesn't publish their annual rate filings publicly, but they don't hide them either; I was able to acquire pretty much everything via a simple FOIA request which was responded to within a few hours of my asking.

There's several important developments happening in Georgia this year; I'll let Louise Norris explain:

As of 2021, there are six insurers that offer exchange plans in Georgia. Five additional insurers plan to join them for 2022: Friday Health Plans, Bright Health, Aetna, UnitedHealthcare, and Cigna (Aetna, UHC, and Cigna all participated in Georgia’s exchange previously, but left at the end of 2016).


Florida state law apparently gives private corporations wide berth as to what sort of information, which is easily available in some other states, they get to hide from the public under the guise of it being a "trade secret."

In the case of health insurance premium rate filing data, that even extends to basic information like "how many customers they have."

If you think I'm being sarcastic, this is literally a screenshot of what you get if you attempt to use the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation's filing search: