OK, it's very important to note that the ratio of QHP selections to QHP determinations, which was consistently hovering between 45-50% throughout the entire Open Enrollment Period, likely shot up significantly over the final weekend. On the other hand, MA has bumped their deadline out by 8 extra days on account of the massive snowstorms, so perhaps not.

With that in mind, assuming at least a 50% ratio since Friday's official numbers (9,109 additional QHP determinations), that would mean a minimum of 4,600 additional selections, for a grand total of at least 130K to date.

In theory, it could be as high as 233,000 if every single person who has been determined eligible to enroll in a QHP has gone back and finished the process. Somehow I doubt it's that high, but that at least gives an idea of the potential ceiling here (and don't forget, there's still another full week for MA residents to start the process).

Meanwhile, Medicaid (MassHealth) has broken the 250K milestone.

This Just In...

Overall 1.4 million in @CoveredCA now, over 3 million newly enrolled in Medi-Cal. Big impacts on health coverage from the #ACA. #Obamacare

— Health Access CA (@healthaccess) February 17, 2015

At #ITUPconference, #CoveredCA director Peter Lee notes that 2nd open enrollment closed 29 hours ago: newly enrolled 474,000! 36K on Sunday.

— Health Access CA (@healthaccess) February 17, 2015

Holy Smokes.

264,000 Marylanders enrolled through Maryland Health Connection for 2015
Qualified Health Plan enrollments top 119,000
Enrollments “in the pipeline” can be completed by Feb. 28

Overview:
264,245 Marylanders enrolled through Maryland Health Connection from Nov. 15, 2014 to Feb. 15, 2015. That includes 119,096 people enrolled in private Qualified Health Plans (QHP) and 145,149 enrolled in Medicaid.

Due to high demand during the final weekend of open enrollment, Maryland Health Benefit Exchange is allowing people who started an application at MarylandHealthConnection.gov or contacted the call center by Feb. 15 to complete the process by Feb. 28. Figures for open enrollment will be revised after Feb . 28 to account for those completed enrollments.

The Republican Chair of the House Ways & Means Committee, Paul Ryan (who was also Mitt "Grandfather of Obamacare" Romney's running mate just 2 1/2 years ago, you might recall), has made it official:

(Bloomberg) -- House Republicans won’t agree to fix Obamacare if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that the law bars health-insurance subsidies for millions of people, said House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan.

OK, so what happens to the 6.5 - 7.2 million people who will be faced with a $3,200 tax hike in the event of the SCOTUS ruling for Republicans?

Republicans are developing a “contingency plan” to address the states whose residents would lose subsidies while lawmakers work on a full replacement for the Affordable Care Act, Ryan, a Wisconsin Republican, told reporters Friday in Washington.

The enrollment data from Hawaii has been sporatic and a bit squirrelly, with the few numbers being thrown around sometimes including the cumulative plan selections including 2014 enrollees whether they renewed for 2015 or not. When I posted my last Hawaii update, I was suspicious (at 16.1K, it was nearly twice last year's tally), but the article seemed pretty confident about the numbers, so I went with it.

This evening, I was immediately concerned when I saw the lede...

The Hawaii Health Connector said about 13,356 residents signed up for Obamacare coverage in the three-month enrollment period that ended Sunday.

An hour ago I wrote about the WA HealthplanFinder re-launching a special Tax Season enrollment period which effectively just extends the enrollment period out by an extra 2 months. However, the press release wasn't posted openly on their site.

They just made it official...and along the way provided a rough QHP enrollment update:

Washington Healthplanfinder Closes with Surge in Enrollment, Announces Spring Special Enrollment Opportunity for Washingtonians to Avoid 2016 Penalty

Residents who were unaware of tax penalty may still have time to enroll

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Feb. 16, 2015, 10:00 a.m. PST

MNsure just joined 46 other states (+DC)...that just leaves Kentucky, Vermont and Hawaii without an official extension policy of some sort or another:

MNsure Announces Special Enrollment Period for Consumers "In Line" to Enroll at Midnight February 15
Special Enrollment Period planned to ensure all Minnesotans have the ability to get covered

ST. PAUL, Minn.—Today MNsure announced a plan to ensure all Minnesotans “in line” have the ability to obtain affordable, comprehensive coverage. The Special Enrollment Period will make certain that Minnesotans who were “in line” to enroll—those who began the enrollment process but experienced difficulty, preventing enrollment in time to beat the February 15 deadline—will have their enrollments processed during a special enrollment period.  

“In line” is defined as anyone who took any of the following steps with the MNsure system:

Tami Luhby of CNNMoney deserves a shout-out for hunting down this notice from the Washington HealthPlanFinder (it's not officially posted publicly on their website yet that I can tell):

This is the first year residents who are filing their 2014 federal taxes may incur a penalty through the IRS on their tax return if they failed to have health insurance for more than three consecutive months in 2014. Given that some residents may become aware of the penalty for the first time this year, Washington Healthplanfinder will open a Special Enrollment Period for these individuals so they can get coverage and avoid the penalty for not having coverage in 2015. These individuals as well as those who were unable to meet the Feb. 15 deadline can apply for the Spring 2015 Special Enrollment Period.

As I noted last night, I've had to restructure my national projections due to the IRS verification issue on Saturday, the massive snowstorms in the northeast and other odds & ends which have led practically every state (except for HI, KY, MN & VT) to announce some sort of enrollment extension period. A few are "full" extensions (ie, you don't have to have already started the process yet); most are "waiting in line" extensions (you have to have already started your application as of midnight Sunday).

The cut-off dates also vary widely, from as soon as Friday the 20th (California) to as late as Saturday the 28th (Maryland & New York). A few haven't given any hard date, although the 28th is the most practical cut-off point (at least for coverage to start the next day, that is).

Anyway, here's my revised estimates of how the final week of the official Open Enrollment Period played out...and how I expect the "overtime" period to look:

Yesterday I poked fun at many of the ACA exchanges for issuing vaguely-worded, non-specific statements about "making sure that everyone who tried" to enroll by midnight would be assisted, without any particular deadlines being given or other specifics.

Since then, most of the exchanges which hadn't done so already have clarified the extension policies--hard end dates, what the procedure is and so on.

And then there's Your Health Idaho, which features this on their home page:

I checked the most recent entry on their Twitter feed...

You’re close to missing out on health coverage for 2015! Today is the final day to enroll in a YHI plan. Don’t wait! pic.twitter.com/HAn8qeERqs

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