There's not a huge amount of position shifting here (other than Hawaii), but with today's final official ASPE enrollment report for 2015 Open Enrollment having been released, it seems appropriate to do this one more time:

2015 vs. 2014:

The biggest change here is that Hawaii is no longer near the top of the list due to the confusing report from the HI exchange a few weeks back. Otherwise, aside from Massachusetts (special case) and Maryland (these are the only 2 exchanges to overhaul their prior tech platform with new ones while remaining self-contained), DC is the only "state" exchange in the top third. The other state exchanges are all down at the bottom.

Why? Two reasons: First, 3 of the states (CO, RI & WA) are only listing paid enrollments (or at least are purging past-due unpaid selections before submitting their data to HHS). Secondly, because HC.gov has simply caught up this year after being smoked the last time around.

In my post about today's official ASPE ACA Enrollment Report, there weren't too many surprises....but there were a few notable items. As I noted:

  • HAWAII: I was assured 8 ways from Sunday that Hawaii's23,000 enrollee figure was specifically for 2015 enrollment. This made no sense to me given their tiny enrollment last year, but I was assured of it. Well, apparently my original instincts were correct, because they're showing up with only 12,625 in the end.
  • IDAHO: This is the only state which hasn't given their own enrollment update in forever. According to the prior ASPE report, they were at around 90.5K as of January 17th...yet somehow they only managed to rack up another 6,500 enrollees over the entire final month of Open Enrollment?? I was expecting upwards of 30K or so. This makes zero sense to me...am I missing something here?

In addition, there are a few states where their most recent official enrollment reports had some confusing data, which the ASPE report pretty much trumps regardless of anything else (at least, this is the official number which will be tossed around no matter what anyway):

The good news is that both Pennsylvania's new Democratic Governor, Tom Wolf, and Michigan's Republican Governor, Rick Snyder, are on-board for setting up state-based exchanges. Wolf seems to be pushing for one for PA regardless of the SCOTUS decision, while Snyder is only interested in doing so if MI has to:

Pennsylvania:

Pennsylvania's newly elected Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf is working with the federal government to set up a state-based insurance exchange, but GOP-controlled state Legislature would need to approve any funding.

Michigan:

Gov. Rick Snyder said Monday he would ask the Republican-controlled Legislature to create a state-run health exchange if a key part of the Affordable Care Act does not survive a legal challenge.

(I'm "live-updating" this entry, so keep checking back for more notable data nuggets...)

OK, here we go. The top number isn't a particular surprise, of course, since a) I already had QHP selections marked at over 11.7 million as of 2/28 (today's ASPE report only runs through 2/22 for most states, 2/21 for the rest).

The key points (which have already been well-documented here and elsewhere, but it's nice to see it officially stated):

There was a lot of fuss yesterday about the new CBO report which now projects ACA federal tax credits to end up costing about 20% less than previously estimated over the next decade. This is great news, although the reasons for it can be seen as either good or bad depending on your POV:

The Congressional Budget Office previously projected that 12 million people would be covered by insurance policies obtained via an exchange this year. But it has reduced that prediction to 11 million, in part based on the expectation that a significant number of enrollees will give up this coverage, either to obtain insurance elsewhere or to become uninsured.

Over the past few years, there's been what seems to be a huge increase in incidents of police officers harrassing, arresting, beating up, tasing and/or flat-out shooting black people (and, admittedly, the occasional mentally-troubled white person, as if that makes the situation any better) for no particular reason. Michael Brown. Tamir Rice. John Crawford III. Eric Garner. The list goes on and on.

Anyway. My mom and stepfather are snowbirds, spending the winter in a condo down south. My mom called me this afternoon because she had received a call from the alarm company: The alarm at their house in Michigan had gone off, the police had been notified and were en route to check it out. I know the alarm code and have a spare key, so she needed me to swing by to disable the alarm and see what was going on.

Yup, Michigan's ACA Medicaid expansion is still continuing to grow, although it does seem to be slowing down at last:

Healthy Michigan Plan Enrollment Statistics

Beneficiaries with Healthy Michigan Plan Coverage: 579,115
(Includes beneficiaries enrolled in health plans and beneficiaries not required to enroll in a health plan.)

*Statistics as of March 9, 2015 
*Updated every Monday at 3 p.m.

Again, for the record, the prior estimates of how many Michiganders are even eligible for the program ranged from 477K - 500K. We're 16 - 21% above that now.

Not a particularly huge development, but it's nice to receive official confirmation:

Nearly 11.7 million people were enrolled in an Obamacare plan through Feb. 22, Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell said Monday.

That number will continue to increase due to extended enrollment periods through April for those who learn of the penalties for not having healthcare while they are doing their taxes. But as of now, Burwell said more than half of those who signed up were new customers.

The Colorado ACA exchange has just released their latest official enrollment report, and while it's chock full of useful data, it's also bit hard to read (physically...it's a low-res version, will swap it out with a higher-res PDF once they post it), and the numbers also require a bit of parsing...and are a bit confusing.

UPDATE: OK, I've found the actual high-res Dashboard report and have swapped out the low-res one below.

the grand total of "submitted enrollments" is just shy of 154,000. However, that appears to include 3,716 SHOP enrollees (the precise SHOP number is a bit fuzzy due to the footnote regarding this being "currently covered lives, regardless of date of enrollment").

So, separate SHOP out and you have 150,229 QHP selections.

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