How many could lose healthcare via the #MedicaidMassacre bill in the 29 most vulnerable GOP-held House districts?

So, late last night, the House Budget Committee voted to advance the Republican budget bill (aka the #MedicaidMassacre bill) to the House Rules Committee by 17-16 along party lines, with 4 Republican members voting "present."

The Republicans who voted for the bill included:

• CA-05 Tom McClintock
• CA-23 Jay Obernolte
• GA-01 Buddy Carter
• IN-03 Marlin Stutzman
• IN-09 Erin Houchin
• KS-04 Ron Estes
• MI-01 Jack Bergman
• NC-06 Addison McDowell
• NC-11 Chuck Edwards
• NC-14 Tim Moore
• OH-15 Mike Carey
• PA-11 Lloyd Smucker
• TX-19 Jodey Arrington
• TX-26 Brandon Gill
• UT-01 Blake Moore
• VA-06 Ben Cline
• WI-06 Glenn Grothman

The four Republicans who voted "present" are actually ultra hard-liners who had previously opposed the bill for not being draconian ENOUGH:

• GA-09 Andrew Clyde
• OK-02 Josh Brecheen
• SC-05 Ralph Norman
• TX-21 Chip Roy

The Congressional Budget Office projected would result in at least 13.7 million more Americans losing healthcare coverage (and that was based on a prior version of the bill; the new version is considered even more extreme, which is how they managed to get the 4 above to vote "present" instead of "nay").

13.7 million is roughly 30% of the combined total of exchange enrollees, BHP enrollees (MN/NY/OR only) and Medicaid expansion enrollees nationally (~46 million)...but again, the new version is even harsher, with the so-called "work reporting requirements" (aka the "Job Loss Penalty") now scheduled to kick in sooner, which would kick even more people off of coverage.

UPDATE: Sure enough, the new version of the bill would move the Job Loss Penalty (aka "Work Reporting Requirements") up from starting in 2029 to starting on Dec. 31, 2026. This alone would mean 2 more years of coverage losses.

All 21 Republicans listed above respresent fairly solid red districts, which makes it a lot easier for them to vote to push through the bill. HOWEVER, there's dozens of other House Republicans who represent far less solidly red districts...and in fact 29 of them only won last their races by 12 points or less last November.

Below I've posted district-wide healthcare coverage enrollment estimates for all 29 of these House districts for reference. On average, around 11.7% of their total populations (1 out of every 8.5 residents) is at risk of losing healthcare coverage assuming a) the #MedicaidMassacre bill passes & is implemented and b) the GOP-controlled Congress fails to extend the improved federal APTC subsidies included in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) several years ago beyond 2025.