2018 Rate Hikes: New Jersey (early look)

Thanks to Emily Gee and the Center for American Progress for this:

This isn't a full/official New Jersey rate hike update, as it only refers to one carrier, and rounds things off a bit, but in the video above, if you watch from around 37:30 to 41:00, you'll hear New Jersey Congressman Frank Pallone talk about the negative impact that the CSR reimbursement threat/uncertainty/sabotage effect is having on Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield...and since Horizon BCBS happens to hold something like 70% of the New Jersey individual market share (which is confirmed by Pallone in the video), the statewide weighted average rate hike will end up being largely determined by theirs.

The most relevant part:

"So Horizon, which is something like 70% of our market in New Jersey, filed like a 24% increase. And I asked the president (of Horizon) "why are you filing with a 24% increase?" I can't imagine that health insurance costs have gone up that much. And he said "Oh, they haven't, Congressman." I said, "well, what is this?"

"So he essentially broke it down and said, 'well, about 8% of what we filed is for increased costs of health insurance. About 10-11% is because if the repeal goes through and there's no mandate, we figure the healthier/wealthier will drop out, and it'll cost us that much more....and another 6-7% was because Trump decides on a month-to-month basis whether to pay for the Cost Sharing subsidies, so I don't know whether they're gonna be paid in the next year."

That's a different proportionate breakout than I have for most states, where the CSR and mandate enforcement portions tend to be flipped around, but overall it tells the same story: 33% due to actual increased medical expenses, 66% due specifically to CSR and/or mandate enforcement uncertainty.