Charles Gaba's blog

Last spring, in light of the massive last-minute crush of enrollees, caused partially by the even more massive early technical issues at HC.gov and various state exchanges, the administration announced a 15-day "waiting in line" extension period which allowed anyone who had started the process as of midnight on March 31st, 2014 to have until April 15th to complete their enrollment checkout. It was a huge success, and resulted in an additional 900,000 people selecting a plan.

A few of the individual state exchanges even went beyond that, with either "full" or "waiting in line" extensions that bumped all the way out to the end of April or even May, in the case of Nevada...but at least there were specific dates given.

Yesterday, in response to a devastating 9-hour income verification system outage which prevented an unknown number of people from getting through the system, the HHS Dept. gave a vague announcement that:

...If you can’t submit your completed application, just save it. If you do, we'll make sure you can return later to finish and enroll for March 1 coverage.

I've stressed, over and over again, that my 12.5 million "by midnight February 15th" national QHP selection estimate assumed that there would be no further significant technical problems at Healthcare.Gov or the other exchanges.

As it happens, a couple of states (Washington in particular) have been having "significant technical problems" throughout the enrollment period after all, but nothing that would impact the overall numbers by more than perhaps 100K total...and HC.gov has been smooth sailing the entire way.

Until yesterday, that is.

Consumers had difficulty submitting their applications for health insurance on Healthcare.gov just one day before this year's deadline, a Health Department official said Saturday.

"Some consumers have been unable to submit their application because their income is unable to be verified as a result of intermittent issues with external verification sources," the Department of Health and Human Services official said.

This just in...

Obamacare: @CoveredCA says enrollment hits 1.36M ahead of Sunday deadline. More than 25K signed up Friday #ACA

— Chad Terhune (@chadterhune) February 14, 2015

OK, CoveredCA had hit 1.314M as of Wednesday, and added about 46,000 more on Thursday & Friday (21K & 25K respectively) to reach 1.36 million as of last night.

That means they'd have to enroll a whopping 340K today and tomorrow, or 170K each day, to reach their 1.7M target. To reach my own just-lowered target of 1.6 million, they'd have to enroll 120K/day, which might be feasible.

Of course, with the extra 5 day "waiting in line" extension, they might be able to pull off one or the other.

UPDATE x2: OK, they resolved whatever the issue was a few hours ago:

We resolved the issues that prevented some from submitting applications. Visit http://t.co/eTfU7hSMWR and #GetCovered

— HealthCare.gov (@HealthCareGov) February 15, 2015

 

UPDATE: HC.gov has added the following message on the home page:

Politico health editor Joanne Kenen, yesterday:

@SecBurwell expects a spike in signups near deadline but not as big a surge as last year's enrollment end

— Joanne Kenen (@JoanneKenen) February 13, 2015

OK, let's unpeel this onion. HHS's official target: 10.4 million QHP selections (which has already been reached). My original target was 12.0 million (made on 11/14); I increased this to 12.5 million on 12/12, which is what I've stuck to ever since.

When the dust settles, who will prove to be more accurate...the head of the Health & Human Services Dept...or me? :)

The last official update out of Connect for Health Colorado had the QHP tally at 125,378 as of 1/31.

Yesterday (Friday, 2/13), CBS Denver reported:

As of last Monday, Colorado reported 128,000 enrollments in 2015. About three-fourths of those are returning customers , with about a fourth being new customers.

OK, so that's an increase of around 2,622. However, the "...as of last Monday" bit is confusing. To me, saying "last Monday" on a Friday refers to the prior Monday (ie, 2/02 in this case). However, that would suggest that CO enrolled over 1,300 per day for 2 days in a row. The state was only averaging 233/day over the prior couple of weeks, which means they'd have to have ramped up over 5.5x, which is possible (a few other states have pulled this off).

The DC exchange may be small, but every person counts. The only irritating thing about their reports is that they always refer to them as being cumulative since October 2013, instead of only counting those who have enrolled or renewed their policies since 11/15/14. I went through this a few weeks back and concluded that yes, the numbers below are accurate for 2015:

More Than 80,500 People Enrolled in Health Coverage Through DC Health Link

Friday, February 13, 2015

Enrollment

From October 1, 2013 to February 8, 2015, 80,578 people have enrolled in health insurance coverage through DC Health Link in private insurance or Medicaid:

  •  20,358 people enrolled in a private qualified health plan,
  •  44,457 people have been determined eligible for Medicaid, and
  •  15,763 people enrolled through the DC Health Link small business marketplace (includes Congressional enrollment). 

So that's:

I actually wasn't expecting any further enrollment updates today, but Kentucky has slipped in one more before the final weekend:

To date 150,665 Kentuckians have enrolled in healthcare coverage through #kynect for 2015. Open enrollment ends Feb. 15 at midnight. #ACA

— kynectky (@kynectky) February 13, 2015

Of the 150,665 enrolled > 75,760 renewed enrollments from last year > 23,274 are newly enrolled in private plans > and 51,631 are Medicaid.

— kynectky (@kynectky) February 13, 2015

Here's how KY has ramped up in recent weeks:

  • 1/22: 92,886 QHPs
  • 2/05: 95,927 QHPs (217/day)
  • 2/12: 99,034 QHPs (444/day)

That's more than a 2x enrollment rate increase from last week.

And so, the Open Enrollment Period extensions are officially underway. I was expecting underperforming states like Washington and Minnesota to be the first out of the gate, but instead, the first three states to make formal announcements are California, Massachusetts and now, New York:

  • California: Yesterday, CoveredCA announced a 5-day "Waiting in Line" extension policy (ie, as long as you've started the enrollment process as of midnight on Sunday 2/15, you'll have until Friday, 2/20 to complete the process.
  • Massachusetts: Just a few hours ago, the MA Health Connector announced that due to getting slammed with 3 massive snowstorms in the past few weeks, as well as a 4th major one sweeping in right now, they're bumping out the full enrollment period (ie, no "have to be in line already" caveat) by a full 8 days, until February 23rd.
  • And just this moment, the New York State of Health has announced that like California, they're going the "Waiting in Line" route: Anyone who starts the process by midnight Sunday will have until February 28th to actually select a plan and check out. It's important to note that NY residents who enroll between 2/16 - 2/28 won't have their policy kick in until April 1st, however.

So, who'll be next? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller??

This is something of an exclusive: I've received official notice from the Maryland Health Connection exchange that as of last night, their enrollment totals stood at:

  • 107,586 QHP selections
  • 132,392 Medicaid/CHIP enrollees
  • 239,978  Total

How's this compare vs. prior weeks?

Not as dramatic of a surge as some other states, but then again, with today's update, Maryland is already 2% higher than my target number (105K), which was in turn 19% higher than the HHS Dept's target number (88K), which itself was 30% higher than their 2014 total (67,757).

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