Breaking: HC.gov reports record-breaking 16.6M QHP selections, highest ever for Jan. 1st coverage

via the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) just now:

The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) is committed to a robust Marketplace Open Enrollment process for consumers so they can easily purchase high-quality, affordable health care coverage. CMS reports that a record 16.6 million consumers signed up for plan year 2025 and will receive up to a full year of coverage beginning January 1. Of those consumers, 2 million are new to the Marketplace this year. This represents selections in the 31 states that use HealthCare.gov. Plan selection continues in most State-based Marketplaces, as well. The next national snapshot will be available in early January.

The footnote at the bottom confirms: "These metrics reflect available Federally-facilitated Marketplaces (FFMs) data through December 18, 2024."

Consumers already enrolled in Marketplace coverage are encouraged to return to the Marketplace and actively renew their coverage. Nearly 7.2 million existing consumers have already returned to the Marketplace to actively keep their current plan or select a new plan for 2025. Building on the historic success of last year, we are on track for a record high number of plan selections for this year’s Open Enrollment.

This press release doesn't include a state-by-state breakout, nor does it include updated data for the 20 state-based marketplaces (SBMs), so I can't really do a full analysis, but it's still important as it completely blows away the "lagging enrollment" claims which some media outlets have been running with.

For comparison, last year CMS reported 15.3 million HC.gov enrollees by the deadline for January coverage, so this year's 16.6M figure is around 8.5% higher year over year so far....except it's actually more impressive than that, because Georgia moved onto their own SBM platform this year. When you subtract Georgia's ~1.2 million enrollees from last year's total, it was more like 14.1 million, meaning HC.gov is actually up more like 17.7% y/y so far.

As I just reported yesterday & updated this morning, we also know that enrollment is up nearly 23% across 6 of the SBMs so far (around 1.1 million vs. ~900K last year). Combined, that means total enrollment is up ~18% or so across 37 states, give or take.

It's also worth noting that of the 16.6 million total, CMS says ~2.0M are new enrollees while ~7.2M actively re-enrolled...which means another ~7.4 million allowed themselves to be auto-renewed.

By comparison, last year there were a total of 4.2M new enrollees via HC.gov...except that around 1.0 million of those enrolled after the 12/15 deadline, so call it around 3.2 million.

By contrast, last year HC.gov only had about 3.6 million auto-renewals, which means more than twice as many let it ride this time around...~3.8 million more.

While I always encourage people not to passively auto-renew, it makes a lot of sense this year since so many 2024 enrollees transferred over to the ACA exchange after having their Medicaid/CHIP enrollment terminated via the Unwinding process. This population has presumably mostly never been enrolled in ACA exchange coverage before and thus have never gone through the renewal process.

I should also note that CMS had also previously confirmed another ~5.1 million 2025 enrollments across the other 14 SBM states, which brings the confirmed total up to at least 22.8 million QHP selections nationally...well ahead of last year's FINAL total of 21.45 milion.

“As millions have already discovered, shopping for quality health coverage through HealthCare.gov is easy. Thanks to tax credits signed into law by President Biden in the Inflation Reduction Act, most shoppers can find a plan for $10 a month or even less,” said Health & Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra. “Sign-up today at HealthCare.gov for the best holiday gift — quality, affordable coverage and peace of mind.”

“The record-breaking enrollment in Marketplace coverage speaks volumes about the critical need for health care coverage,” said CMS Administrator Chiquita Brooks-LaSure. “To consumers still exploring options: Act now to secure coverage beginning February 1, and to take advantage of the enhanced tax credits that are still available for 2025 to make coverage more affordable.”

For 2025, consumers continue to have greater plan choices, and, thanks to the Biden-Harris Administration and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, many people who were previously ineligible for financial assistance now have access to lower premiums after tax credits. Four out of five HealthCare.gov consumers can find a plan for $10 or less per month through enhanced tax credits. Consumers are reminded that these enhanced tax credits will remain available through 2025. For more information on the range of updates CMS has implemented to improve the Health Insurance Marketplace® for 2025 — including web and navigation enhancements and more — consult the “What’s New for 2025 Open Enrollment” fact sheet.

Marketplace Open Enrollment on HealthCare.gov runs from November 1 to January 15. Most consumers who enroll between now and January 15 will get coverage starting February 1, 2025.

Individuals can enroll or re-enroll in health insurance coverage for 2025 by visiting HealthCare.gov (or CuidadoDeSalud.gov), or by calling 1-800-318-2596 to fill out an application. Individuals who want assistance signing up for coverage may go to “Find Local Help” on HealthCare.gov to find a Navigator, Certified Application Counselor, or Marketplace-registered agent or broker. Additionally, if someone learns they are no longer eligible for Medicaid or Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) coverage, they can visit HealthCare.gov to see if they are eligible to enroll in a low-cost, quality health plan. They can also contact the Marketplace Call Center for support in finding a plan that fits their needs.

Health Insurance Marketplace® is a registered service mark of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.