New Mexico: Here's the ~285,000 residents who could lose coverage, by county
In New Mexico, assuming 57,000 people enroll in private exchange policies by the end of January, I estimate around 25,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus another 260,000 enrolled in the ACA Medicaid expansion program, for a total of 285,000 residents kicked to the curb.
As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:
- Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)
- Project QHP selections as of 1/31/17 based on statewide signup estimates. In Louisiana, I actually expect the number of exchange QHPs to drop by about 17% from last year, mainly due to cannibalization by the Medicaid expansion program of those in the 100-138% FPL income range.
- Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
- Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
- Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
- Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.