Dear Congressional GOP: Don't Say You Weren't Warned. (including by your own experts)
A definitely-NOT-comprehensive selection of opinions regarding the Republican Party's imminent "Repeal & Delay" strategy for the Affordable Care Act:
What outside experts are saying about repeal and delay:
American Academy of Actuaries: “Repealing major provisions of the ACA would raise immediate concerns that individual market enrollment would decline, causing the risk pools to deteriorate and premiums to become less affordable. Even if the effective date of a repeal is delayed, the threat of a deterioration of the risk pool could lead additional insurers to reconsider their participation in the individual market.” [Letter to Congress, 12/7/16]
Nick Gerhart (Iowa Republican Insurance Commissioner): “If you're going to repeal this, I hope that there's a replacement stapled to that bill.” [NPR, 11/21/16]
Governor Jay Inslee and Mike Kreidler (Washington Democratic Governor and Insurance Commissioner): “Decisions to cut funding before developing a replacement puts the health of Washingtonians at great risk through undermining and destabilizing their health care.” [Letter to Congress, 12/9/16]
Sabrina Corlette (Georgetown University): “The idea that you can repeal the Affordable Care Act with a two- or three-year transition period and not create market chaos is a total fantasy.” [New York Times, 12/3/16]
Michael Cannon (Cato Institute): "What they are planning to do is absolutely insane.” [TPM, 12/18/16]
(Note: Michael Cannon, one of the architects of the infamous King v. Burwell case, by his own admission, hates the ACA more than anyone else on the planet)
Larry Levitt (Kaiser Family Foundation):
- “The individual insurance market could collapse in between a repeal vote and a replacement vote” [TPM, 11/29/16].
- “Any significant delay between repeal of the ACA and clarity over what will replace it would likely lead insurers to exit the marketplaces in droves” [Huffington Post, 12/1/16].
- "Republicans are in a bit of box here, because the individual mandate is an anathema to them, but repealing the individual mandate immediately while keeping the protections for people with pre-existing conditions would likely lead to immediate chaos in the insurance market" [TPM, 11/29/16].
Stuart Butler (formerly Heritage Foundation), Alice Rivlin (former CBO and OMB Director), Loren Adler (Brookings Institution): “If replacing the ACA is truly the goal, though, repealing it first without a replacement in hand is almost certainly a disastrous way to start. First, a reconciliation bill would likely destabilize the individual market and very possibly cause it to collapse in some regions of the country during the interim period before any replacement is designed…If no replacement plan materializes, the hollowed-out individual market – for people without access to employer-provided or public coverage – could be left in shambles.” [Brookings, 12/13/16]
Topher Spiro (Center for American Progress): "Their strategy of repealing now and replacing later was designed to provide false assurance that everything would be okay. Now there's a growing awareness that in fact this strategy would cause a lot of chaos and perhaps even collapse the market before a replacement plan can be put into place." [TPM, 11/29/16]
Robert Laszewski (Health Care Consultant and ACA Critic): “Republicans are being awfully naive. They seem to be ignoring the risks in the transition period.” [Vox, 12/1/16]
Former Senator Tom Daschle: “It sends all the wrong messages to the private sector…You gotta have the replacement before you have the repeal.” [Politico Pulsecheck Podcast, 12/1/16]
Joshua Blackman (Professor and former Cato Institute Scholar): “Passing it by itself is politically expedient, but would create a series of headaches very quickly for the Republicans." [TPM, 12/18/16]
Linda Blumberg, Matthew Buettgens, John Holahan (Urban Institute): “If Congress partially repeals the ACA with a reconciliation bill like that vetoed in January 2016…Significant market disruption would occur…Many, if not most, insurers are unlikely to participate in Marketplaces in 2018.” [Urban, 12/7/16]
Judith Solomon (Center for Budget and Policy Priorities): “Many people likely would lose coverage before any Republican health plan was fully implemented.” [CPBB, 12/5/16]