First, I have to clarify that while the data from the first and second (numeric) columns (and therefore, the third as well) are pretty solid, I'm still making a lot of assumptions for the 4th, 5th and 6th columns below.
The numbers in the first column (2014 EOY Total) come from the just-released Kaiser Family Foundation Data Note, which in turn is based on the Health Coverage Portal by Mark Farrah Associates. That's the total number of people enrolled in private, individual healthcare policies, regardless of whether they were purchased via the ACA exchanges or not.
The second column (2014 EOY Exchange (Estimate)) is my best estimate of how many people had effectuated enrollmentsthrough the ACA exchangesas of 12/31/14. Those are all important caveats. These numbers are based on the following:
A week or so ago I noted that the new Kaiser Family Foundation monthly tracking poll strongly (if indirectly) supports my estimate of roughly 8.5 million OFF-exchange QHP policy enrollees for 2015 (actually likely closer to 8.6 - 8.7 million by now).
As of the end of open enrollment in 2014, 8 million people had signed up for coverage through the Marketplaces. Accounting for the fact that some of those people did not pay their premiums or subsequently dropped coverage – and for signups through special enrollment periods throughout the year – 6.7 million people were insured through marketplace plans as of October 15, 2014. However, it has been unclear precisely how many of these Marketplace enrollees were previously uninsured or how many would have purchased individual coverage directly from an insurer in the absence of the ACA.
Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of recently-submitted 2014 filings by insurers to state insurance departments (using data compiled by Mark Farrah Associates) shows that 15.5 million people had major medical coverage in the individual insurance market – both inside and outside of the Marketplaces – as of December 31, 2014. Enrollment was up 4.8 million over the end of 2013, a 46% increase.
Testimony before the Senate Committee on Small Business and Entrepreneurship
by MICHAEL F. CANNON April 29, 2015
...If the Court sides with the challengers, its ruling will free more than 57 million employers and individuals in those federal-Exchange states from the ACA’s employer and individual mandates. Those 57 million Americans include Kevin Pace, a jazz musician and Virginia resident whose income fell by $8,000 when his employer cut his hours to avoid the IRS’s illegal taxes. They include small-business owners who would expand and hire more workers, but are prohibited from doing so by threat of illegal taxes. A ruling for the challengers would protect small businesses and their employees from an out-of-control IRS. Such a ruling would cause a smaller number of Americans —an estimated 6.7 million — to lose access to subsidies that no Congress ever authorized.
ALERT: Our call center has closed today due to the city disturbances. Find in-person help: http://t.co/HYoHhs8uRf
— MD Health Connection (@MarylandConnect) April 28, 2015
However, any impact on actual ACA enrollments should be nominal.
Maryland had 120,145 QHP selections during open enrollment. Assuming my combined #ACATaxTime + "normal" Off-Season enrollment rate estimate of roughly 10,500 people per day nationally (through Thursday the 30th, anyway) is accurate, MD's share of this should be roughly 1% of this, or around 108 people per day at the moment. Even then, only around 1/3 of the total would be specifically for the tax season special enrollment period (the others would presumably just be delayed by a few days).
From October 1, 2013 to April 26, 2015, 106,364 people have enrolled in health insurance coverage through DC Health Link in private insurance or Medicaid:
22,354 people enrolled in a private qualified health plan,
67,761 people have been determined eligible for Medicaid, and
16,249 people enrolled through the DC Health Link small business marketplace (includes Congressional enrollment)
From October 1, 2013 to March 8, 2015, 89,852 people have enrolled in health insurance coverage through DC Health Link in private insurance or Medicaid:
MORE THAN 33,000 CONSUMERS UNAWARE OF TAX PENALTY FOR BEING UNINSURED HAVE ENROLLED IN HEALTH INSURANCE THROUGH COVERED CALIFORNIA SINCE FEBRUARY
Those Without Health Insurance Have Three Days to Enroll in Covered California to Minimize Penalty for Being Uninsured in 2015
SACRAMENTO, Calif. — With just two days until the April 30 deadline, Covered California urged consumers on Tuesday to enroll in health coverage and announced that more than 33,000 people who signed up since February indicated they were unaware of the tax penalty for being uninsured. The 33,000 enrollees were among more than 91,000 consumers who enrolled in coverage through special enrollment since open enrollment ended in February.
Not that anyone's reading today (all eyes are on either Baltimore or the Supreme Court, with good reason), but this is a nice little ancillary benefit of the Affordable Care Act:
Dear Charles,
Thought you'd appreciate this.
Some imposter used my SSN to file a tax return this year, which I found out when I tried to e-file. I've done all the identity theft things, filed my return on paper with the identity theft affidavit from the IRS website, etc. etc. But I wondered whether the fraudster had gotten several thousand dollars out of the Treasury.
Today I got a letter from the IRS, saying they couldn't process my 1040EZ return because it didn't include the Health Insurance tax form, reconciling the subsidy I got (which their computer had matched up with my return) with the credit I was actually entitled to.
I haven't filed a 1040EZ since maybe 1975, so this was obviously the fraudulent return, not my real one. (My real one has the health insurance form on it, of course.) I was delighted that their filter matched ACA information against the return before sending out the refund. I called the IRS to let them know, and will follow up with the IRS in writing to make sure they don't send any refund.
After months of never-ending growth, "Healthy Michigan", aka MI's implementation of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion provision, has officially stabilized at around 600,000 enrollees:
The reason it's bobbling around the 600K mark, of course, is because of normal "churn" as people move onto/off of the program as they gain/lose jobs, move into/out of the state, give birth/lose family members and so forth.
A few days ago, YouGov.com posted the results of their own survey about the ACA, which showed pretty much exactly the same results as both the Bloomberg News and Kaiser Family Foundation polls released last week: Obamacare still isn't exactly beloved, but acceptance/approval of the law has been gradually (if grudgingly) increasing ever since the ugly rollout of the ACA exchanges a year and a half ago:
I didn't bother posting about this poll because it seemed a bit redundant; all 3 surveys asked questions in different ways, but the results are pretty consistent across the board.
Here's a conundrum for today's Florida Republicans: You love tax cuts and hospital corporations while hating education and poor people.
You're all set to slash taxes (again) while also giving hospitals $1.3 billion from the federal government to reimburse them for losses they incur from treating poor people who can't afford to pay their bills.
At the same time, you're kind of a huge jerk, so you refused to expand Medicaid to over 800,000 of your residents, even though you won't have to pay a dime for the first 3 years, a few percent for the next few years and no more than 10% of the cost after that.
The Supreme Court rules that you don't have to do so, so you get to spend a couple of years laughing in the face of 800K low-income people while simultaneously rubbing the Obama Administration's nose in your ass-jackery.
Finally, the HHS Dept. decides to fight back by threatening to pull that $1.3B away from your hospitals unless you play ball.
Suddenly, you're in a bind. If you cave, then terrible things will happen: 800,000 people will receive decent healthcare coverage and you'll be found guilty by your fellow Republicans of having a soul. The Horror! Can't have THAT happen!!
