Last February, when the "But how many have PAID???" right-wing meme started to take hold, I pointed out, over and over again, that:

  1. yes, it's a perfectly legitimate and relevant question to ask, but
  2. the time to ask it isn't until AFTER the dust settles on the enrollment period.

Why? Because it's a rolling average. The million-plus people who selected a plan in the final 9 days of open enrollment don't even start their policy coverage until March 1st. Many of their premium payments aren't due for another week. Most people tend to wait until just a few days before the due date to pay their cable, gas, phone bills...and with automated billing, in many cases the payment will go through automatically on the due date itself anyway. 

Three more updates to the #ACAOvertime Deadline Extension Roundup:

  • First, as noted this morning, California has tacked on an extra 2 days to their "In Line by Midnight" period (previously ending on 2/20; now extended to 2/22)

But by February 18, the exchange was offering an extension to people who tried to enroll by February 15 but were unable to do so by the deadline.  This has not been published on the exchange website, but an exchange representative confirmed that the extension runs through February 23, and that the call center (855-899-9600) will help enrollees complete the process between now and then.

Another 1,678 QHP determinations yesterday. At this point, I think it's safe to say that pretty much anyone who's bothering to go through the trouble of setting up an account and submitting an application is also following through and selecting a plan, but for the moment I'll just go with 60% and figure 1,000 people actually did so, for 131K or more total.

Meanwhile, Medicaid enrollment is up to over 256K.

It's a long press release, but here's the latest update out of Rhode Island (which has a FULL extension/overtime policy through 2/23).

The grand total: 30,744 QHPs, of which 27,487 have paid their first premium (89.4%). The payment rate has gone down because a huge number of those 30,744 just enrolled in the past week or so, and thus their payments aren't due for another week yet.

SHOP enrollments now stand at 3,349.

HEALTHSOURCE RI RELEASES ENROLLMENT, DEMOGRAPHIC AND VOLUME DATA THROUGH FEBRUARY 15, 2015

Posted on February 18, 2015 | By HealthSource RI

PROVIDENCE – HealthSource RI (HSRI) has released enrollment data, certain demographic data and certain volume metrics through Sunday, February 15, 2015, the last day of Open Enrollment.

Busy day! New York has issued their enrollment update:

Press Release: NY State of Health Ends Second Open Enrollment with More Than 2.1 Million Enrollees

Feb 18, 2015

ALBANY, N.Y. (February 18, 2015)—New York State of Health, the state’s official health plan Marketplace, today announced that more than 2.1 million people signed up for health insurance by the end of the second open enrollment period, which began on November 15, 2014 and ended on February 15, 2015. Eighty-eight percent of Marketplace enrollees reported that they were uninsured at the time they enrolled. New Yorkers who have enrolled in coverage through the Marketplace have overwhelmingly reported that they are satisfied with their health insurance (92 percent) and are using their coverage to access care (84 percent).

OK, this is just silly. Last night the official announcement stated that 11.4 million people "signed up for" private healthcare policies via the ACA exchanges, right?

You, me and everyone (including critics) assumed that this meant 11.4 million had either renewed their 2014 policyswitched their 2014 policy or newly selected a 2015 policy, right??

Well, check this out:

Of the 11.4 million, 8.6 million consumers selected a plan or were automatically re-enrolled in the 37 states that use the HealthCare.gov platform. In addition, preliminary analyses of data provided by State-Based Marketplaces show that about 2.8 million consumers selected plans or were automatically re-enrolled between November 15 and February 15 in those states. Further details about plan selections from State-Based Marketplaces may be announced by the states and will be included within the upcoming monthly enrollment report. 

8.6 + 2.8 = 11.4 million, right?

California originally announced that they'd allow 5 extra days for people who were Waiting In Line as of midnight on 2/15 to complete their enrollment (through 2/20).

They just updated this to tack on 2 extra days, matching Healthcare.Gov (February 22nd):

You Have Until Feb. 22 to Get Across the Finish Line for Health Coverage

Open enrollment for private health coverage through Covered California in 2015 is now over, but Medi-Cal enrollment is year-round (read more below). If you started the process of enrolling in a Covered California plan by Feb. 15 but did not complete your application, you may complete it by Feb. 22 with the assistance of a certified enroller, and you need to pay your first premium payment on that same day in order for your coverage to take effect March 1, 2015.

Many people have asked me why I kept using 10.4 million QHP selections as the HHS Dept's official 2015 projection instead of the 9.1 million enrollments which most media outlets have been touting.

In the same press conference/press release where the "9.1 million" figure came out, the HHS Dept. elaborated with a range of 9.0 - 9.9 million paid/effectuated enrollees...but also stated, during a follow-up Q&A, that they were expecting 10.3 - 11.2 million QHP selections. In order to narrow this down to a single number to measure against last spring's 8.0 million selections, it's a simple matter of dividing the low and high end of this range:

  • Low-end range: 9.0 million  / 10.3 million = 87%
  • High-end range: 9.9 million / 11.2 million = 88%

What have I been saying all along? That around 88% of QHP selections end up paying at least the first month's premium. It seems that the HHS Dept. agrees with me on this point.

IMPORTANT UPDATE 2/18/15: HOLD THE PHONE...ACTUAL SELECTIONS 200K HIGHER AFTER ALL.

White House says 11.4 million signed up for insurance

About 11.4 million Americans are now signed up for private health coverage thanks to the Affordable Care Act, the White House said Tuesday.

"We just got great news today," President Barack Obama said in a video posted on the White House's Facebook page.

"In the final day we had more consumers sign up than we have ever had," said Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell.

Crud. As I've been saying for the past few days, I changed my projections from 12.5M as of 2/15 to 11.85M as of 2/15, but 12.4M-12.5M as of 2/28.

The server is being hit hard today (I'm being linked to by MSN, Washington Post, USA Today and Time, among others). This, combined with some other issues is causing serious server load issues.

Working on it, hope to see a load reduction soon.

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