Conservative Poll: Clear majority of swing district Americans support preserving enhanced premium tax credits

Tue, 11/18/2025 - 9:33pm

Americans for a Balanced Budget is a conservative think tank. Earlier today they published the results of a poll taken by Trump/Republican pollster John McLaughlin which finds...well...

Americans for a Balanced Budget released the findings of a national survey of 800 likely voters on November 18, 2025, conducted by pollster John McLaughlin of McLaughlin & Associates, across 16 GOP-held battleground districts rated Toss Up or Lean Republican by the Cook Political Report.

The poll conclusively demonstrates enhanced premium tax credits (EPTCs) that help make health insurance affordable for working Americans who purchase their own coverage through the individual market are a pivotal political issue for the 2026 midterm election. Extending these tax credits set to expire at year-end would generate significant political upside for Republicans — and failure to extend these critical tax credits would seriously jeopardize GOP majorities in Congress, and with them, the Trump agenda.

... The message is clear: voters will grade the health care tax credits against the party's performance on affordability — with significant upside to getting something done, and significant downside if they expire."

The new survey found health care costs were the greatest area of concern for likely voters when thinking about rising costs facing them and their families. Nearly all voters (91%) agreed keeping health care affordable is important to lowering the overall cost of living for working American families.

A staggering 73% of voters were concerned about their health care premiums increasing next year, and 70% supported extending the EPTCs.

In addition, a 57% majority were more likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who voted to preserve the tax credits. Support is even higher among Hispanic voters (66%) and Independent women voters (69%).

And a 53% majority were less likely to vote for a candidate for Congress who allowed the health care tax credits to expire, resulting in higher insurance premiums. The political downside has intensity, with half (49%) who are "much" less likely to vote for the candidate. The majority of swing voters are less likely to vote for the candidate, including 57% of Independents, 57% of ticket splitters.

Here's some more details from the survey:

Majority Bipartisan Support for Enhanced Premium Tax Credits

Tax Credits Support: By a 50-point margin (70% to 20%), a broad majority supports the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits. Half (48%) “strongly” support the healthcare tax credits. Although higher among Democrats (93%), the majority of Republicans (53%) also support these tax credits. Among Independents, who will be casting the deciding votes in the midterm elections, two-thirds (66%) support the healthcare tax credits, reaching 73% among Independent women.

Other key voter groups in these battleground districts strongly support the tax credits, including college educated women (79%), married women (74%), Hispanics (79%), voters 55-plus (73%), and ticket splitters (74%).

Extend Tax Credits: By greater than a 2 to 1 margin, (60% to 24%), a clear majority supports preserving the Enhanced Premium Tax Credits to prevent premiums from doubling rather than letting the healthcare tax credits expire.

Methodology:

McLaughlin and Associates conducted the survey, commissioned by Americans for a Balanced Budget, among 800 likely voters in 16 battleground House districts between November 10-11, 2025. The survey included a mix of landline phone, mobile phone, and text-to-web interviews. Interview selection was at random within predetermined election units. The accuracy of the sample of 800 likely voters is within +/- 3.4% at a 95% confidence interval.

Here's the GOP-held or GOP-leaning swing districts polled, along with my estimate of how many ACA exchange enrollees live in each:

AZ-01: (Open Seat): ~49,600
AZ-06: Juan Ciscomani (R): ~44,100
CO-08: Gabe Evans (R): ~28,500
IA-01: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R): ~35,400
IA-03: Zach Nunn (R): ~37,100
MI-07: Tom Barrett (R): ~37,800
MI-10: (Open Seat): ~54,000
NJ-07: Thomas Kean, Jr. (R): ~50,800
NY-17: Mike Lawler (R): ~8,300 (+39,700 BHP enrollees)
OH-09: Marcy Kaptur (D): ~40,500
PA-07: Ryan Mackenzie (R): ~32,700
PA-08: Rob Bresnahan (R): ~34,400
PA-10: Scott Perry (R): ~35,200
TX-34: Vicente Gonzalez (D): ~152,300
VA-02: Jen Kiggans (R): ~32,800
WI-03: Derrick Van Orden (R): ~41,600

It's also worth noting that aside from TX-34, the rest of the districts only have an average of around 40,000 exchange enrollees apiece, or roughly 5.2% of the population apiece. In TX-34 it's 20% of the total population, raising the average to ~6.2% of the total population of these 16 districts.

Why is this significant? Because there's 118 House districts won by Trump last year which have more than 6.2% of their total population enrolled in ACA exchange coverage (or the BHP program in New York).

Of those, there are ten which Trump won by 10 points or less: