Charles Gaba's blog

Thanks to Jesse Lee for saving me the trouble of compiling these:

Report: 1/3 of #ObamaCare "enrollees" haven't paid premiums. How does not paying the premium constitute enrollment? http://t.co/OkkUhsJGyt

— Reince Priebus (@Reince) May 1, 2014

Uh oh: House committee claims only two-thirds of federal ObamaCare enrollees paid first… http://t.co/76cpotiWA4 http://t.co/d7lPrqVltS

— memeorandum (@memeorandum) May 1, 2014

New report confirms just 67% of ObamaCare ‘enrollees’ have actually paid their first month’s premium. http://t.co/2WYjCGpCpN

— NRCC (@NRCC) May 1, 2014

Another Big Number story today on top of the national and Illinois ones. My most recent numbers for California Medicaid expansion had it pegged at around 1.4 million "strict expansion" and around 600K "woodworkers" as of late June. However, that was just an estimate.

This article about a class action lawsuit being filed over the massive Medi-Cal backlog (down to 350K from a whopping 900K back in May) is mostly negative for obvious reasons. However, there's an interesting data point in the middle of it:

According to state officials, 2.2 million new Medi-Cal members were added as a result of the Obamacare healthcare expansion, bringing the total number of participants in the program to about 11 million.

State Department of Health Care Services spokesman Norman Williams said that as of Sept. 1, 350,000 applications remained backed up in the enrollment system. That system has been plagued by computer troubles that have stymied county government efforts to verify patients' Medi-Cal eligibility. 

The backlog was as large as 900,000 earlier in the summer.

Holy smokes! This may seem a bit anticlimactic after this morning's surprise announcement by CMS Administrator Marilyn Tavenner, but it's still just as important in other ways:

@JeffYoung @philgalewitz I can tell you there are now roughly 450,000 newly eligibles who enrolled so far in Medicaid in Illinois.

— Peter Frost (@peterfrost) September 18, 2014

When I inquired, he explained:

@charles_gaba @JeffYoung @philgalewitz Sure. Those are the figures from @CoveredIllinois. They say total is now 670,000 (mktplc + Medicaid)

— Peter Frost (@peterfrost) September 18, 2014

When I asked for a link for confirmation, Jonathan Ingram helpfully chimed in:

Apparently it took Congressional testimony to get it out of them, but here it is:

Another couple of key points...

7.3 million people were signed up for Obamacare as of Aug 15 and paid their premiums, HHS says

— igorvolsky (@igorvolsky) September 18, 2014

Now, before anyone claims that I'm "wrong" about the paid number being 7.3 million instead of 8.07 million, read the tweet carefully: I says that 7.3 million were enrolled as of August 15th. In other words, that's the net number after subtracting those who've dropped their coverage after 1, 2, 3 or more months.

This is FANTASTIC news.

It means that either...

In a new 60-second ad, Kentucky Senate candidate Alison Lundegran Grimes finally goes after opponent Mitch McConnell regarding his repeated attempts to damage/weaken Medicare. It isn't really connected to the Kynect = Obamacare = ACA issue, but it's in the ballpark, anyway:

The ad seems to have gotten under the skin of the McConnell campaign; they're actually attacking her grandfather for having a stroke:

.@Team_Mitch "Any1 who would use their grandfather's stroke" 2 reintroduce false ads "has run out of justification 4 their candidacy" #KYSen

— Phillip M. Bailey (@phillipmbailey) September 18, 2014

A ton of great ACA news coming out of Connecticut this morning, courtesy of Arielle Levin Becker (posted in reverse-chronological order, newest at the top):

Arielle Levin Becker provides some updated numbers out of Connecticut, which is great...but I'll have to do some calculations to parse the data out for my purposes:

Current Access Health membership: 76,094 in private insurance, 207,020 in Medicaid (total Medicaid enrollment is much higher)

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) September 18, 2014

OK, so those are the current enrollment numbers. 76,094 QHPs is 4% net attrition from the 4/19 total of 79,192, or less than 0.8% per month, which is fantastic.

However, since that 76K figure combines both additions and subtractions (ie, it's the net total, not gross), I can't really tell what the cumulative total is, which is what I use for my off-season projection chart.

I've posted several times about the appalling shamelessness of Republican candidates trying to take credit for the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion provision (which was only possible thanks to Democrats) while continuing to badmouth the law itself.

Then there's the ones who try to take credit for Medicaid expansion finally being put into effect even though it was their own ineptness which dragged the process out...in the case of Michigan, needlessly putting hundreds of thousands of people through 3 months of unnecessary anxiety and medical risk while costing the state hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funds in the process:

I'm sure FOX News will find a way to spin this as a negative...

Washington hospitals provided nearly $154 million less in charity care in the first half of this year than in the first half of 2013, in many cases boosting the hospitals’ bottom lines.

Hospitals attributed the plunge in charity care — about 30 percent — to the Affordable Care Act’s focus on reducing the number of uninsured patients.

This year, for the first time, low-income and uninsured patients whose care was previously covered under hospitals’ charity-care programs were able under the ACA to qualify for Medicaid coverage or subsidized private insurance.

The HHS Dept. and Enroll America will be pushing individual stories as well as the increased financial penalty to increase enrollment this year:

The sales pitch for the health law is getting an overhaul for the fall.

Unfortunately, I don't know the market share breakdown, so I can't do a weighted average, but the DC Health Link exchange rates for 2015 have been released, and the unweighted average is only a 2.3% increase for the individual market. For the SHOP (small business) exchange the news is even better...a decrease of over 2% (again, unweighted). The SHOP rates carry a lot more heft in DC than in most states due to the unique rules in place there (like Vermont, all individual enrollment has to be done via the ACA exchange, and all Congressional staffers are required to enroll via the DC SHOP system):

The D.C. Department of Insurance, Securities and Banking today announced the approved health insurance plan rates for the District of Columbia’s health insurance marketplace, DC Health Link, for plan year 2015.

Eight carriers through four major insurance companies – Aetna, CareFirst BlueCross BlueShield, Kaiser Permanente and UnitedHealthcare – will have plan offerings for individuals, families and small businesses on DC Health Link when enrollment opens Nov. 15, 2014.

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