The October Medicaid Report is out: Net increase of 9.7M + 950K via ACA

From the report:

  • The 51 states (including the District of Columbia) that provided enrollment data for October 2014 reported nearly 68.5 million individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP. This enrollment count is point-in-time (on the last day of the month) and includes all enrollees in the Medicaid and CHIP programs who are receiving a comprehensive benefit package.
  • 428,311 additional people were enrolled in October 2014 as compared to September 2014 in the 51 states that reported comparable September and August data.

(And yes, the "51 states" wording is CMS's, not mine)

  • Looking at the additional enrollment since October 2013 when the initial Marketplace open enrollment period began, among the 49 states reporting both October 2014 enrollment data and data from July-September of 2013, approximately 9.7 million additional individuals are enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP as of October 2014, nearly a 17 percent increase over the average monthly enrollment for July through September of 2013.  (Connecticut and Maine are not included in this count.)
  • Among states that had implemented the Medicaid expansion and were covering newly eligible adults in October 2014, Medicaid and CHIP enrollment rose by over 24 percent compared to the July-September 2013 baseline period, while states that have not, to date, expanded Medicaid reported an increase of nearly 7 percent over the same period.
  • Eleven of the 25 states that had implemented the Medicaid expansion and were covering newly eligible adults in October 2014, and that reported relevant data for both October and the July-September 2013 baseline period, experienced an enrollment increase of 30 percent or more.

OK, so that's 9.7 million through 10/31/14. However, as I noted when I reported on the August report, this doesn't include...

These enrollment counts are in addition to the enrollment increases from the nearly 950,000 individuals who gained coverage as a result of the Affordable Care Act before open enrollment began. Seven states implemented an “early option” to expand Medicaid coverage to adults with incomes up to 133 percent of the FPL between April 1, 2010 and January 1, 2014, using new state plan authority provided by the Affordable Care Act or a demonstration under section 1115 of the Social Security Act building upon that authority.

If you add those 950K in, the total net increase in Medicaid/CHIP enrollment due to the Affordable Care Act is closer to 10.65 million through the end of October.

Which, as it happens, is exactly what I've been saying since the new enrollment period started. (note the "11/15/14 starting date estimate").

Now, to be fair, I actually had the total through the end of September at around 10.5 million vs. the 10.05 million it actually was at the time, and knocked a few hundred thousand off my estimate for October, so I can't really take that much credit here, but it's good to know that my revised estimate going into the 2015 enrollment period was on solid ground.