Subsidy Cliff

Originally posted 12/24/24

Ohio has around ~583,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 91% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~25,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~609,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 568,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/22/24

Florida has over ~4.7 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized. I also estimate they have perhaps ~112,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's over 4.8 million people, or a stunning 20.3% of their total population. 1 in 5 Floridians are enrolled in ACA exchange healthcare coverage (assuming CMS's 6.6% net national attrition rate applies to Florida specifically, the actual number of current enrollees is more like 4.5 million, or 19% of the state population).

Originally posted 12/16/25

Wisconsin has around ~293,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 98% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~19,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~333,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 311,000 statewide.

Originally posted 12/08/24

Virginia has ~388,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 86% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have over 22,000 off-exchange enrollees. Combined, that's 411,000 people with ACA market coverage, or 4.6% of the total population.

via Pennie:

Congress Urged to Act Now to Prevent Increase in Health Coverage Costs For Pennsylvanians

The enhanced premium tax credits from the American Rescue Plan and the Inflation Reduction Act have placed high-quality health coverage within reach for hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians. Unless Congress extends these savings, many Pennsylvanians will lose the coverage that protects their health and financial security.

Pennsylvania – September 11, 2024 – Yesterday, Devon Trolley, Executive Director of Pennie – PA’s official health insurance marketplace – and Chairman of the Pennie Board, Michael Humphreys, issued a letter to Pennsylvania’s representatives in Congress strongly urging them to act now to extend the enhanced premium tax credits that dramatically reduce the cost of health coverage through Pennie for hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians.

It was just over three years ago that the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the levels it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

It was just over three years ago that the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the levels it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

It was just over three years ago that the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the levels it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

It was just over three years ago that the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the levels it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

It was just over three years ago that the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) dramatically expanded & enhanced the original premium subsidy formula of the Affordable Care Act, finally bringing the financial aid sliding income scale up to the levels it should have been in the first place over a decade earlier.

In addition to beefing up the subsidies along the entire 100 - 400% Federal Poverty Level (FPL) income scale, the ARPA also eliminated the much-maligned "Subsidy Cliff" at 400% FPL, wherein a household earning even $1 more than that had all premium subsidies cut off immediately, requiring middle-class families to pay full price for individual market health insurance policies.

Here's what the original ACA premium subsidy formula looked like compared to the current, enhanced subsidy formula:

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