The HHS Dept's official exchange enrollment projection for the end of 2015 has always been that they expect roughly 9.1 million people to still be enrolled as of December (of which perhaps 8 million will renew their coverage for next year). If accurate, this would represent an 8.5% drop from the 9.95 million enrolled at the end of June.
As regular readers know, for the past couple of weeks I've been piecing together a theory, based on limited data, that ACA exchange QHP enrollment may have actually increased since June...or, at worst, only dropped slightly. Hard numbers from 8 states show a net increase of 2.7% from June through September; removing Massachusetts from the mix (special case) brings this down to a nominal 0.1% net drop:
After not one, not two, not three, but ten of the CO-OP organizations created by the ACA (and crippled from the get-go by being underfunded, not being allowed to advertise, not being allowed to arrange for additional funding and then having their sole lifeline cut off in the middle of the Open Enrollment period) melting down, you just knew that this was coming:
House Energy and Commerce Committee sets November hearing on ACA health co-op program
The House Committee on Energy and Commerce will hold a hearing on the Affordable Care Act's health co-op program in the wake of a string of collapses of consumer operated and oriented plans around the country, two sources familiar with the matter told SNL on Oct. 27.
Watch and learn. KFF does an excellent job of boiling down all of the insanity into just over 5 minutes (not that this reduces how stupid the system is, even under the ACA, but it at least explains it).
NOTE: The Open Enrollment dates listed at the end are obviously wrong because this video is from last year. For 2016, Open Enrollment runs from November 1st, 2015 through January 31st, 2016.
Thanks to Esteban B in the comments for the reminder.
This morning I noted a New York Times article regarding a whole bunch of ACA exchange enrollees who either forgot to/didn't realize they had to file a federal tax return in order to keep receiving their Advance Premium Tax Credits or who did file their taxes but forgot to include the subsidy reconciliation form when doing so.
At the time, I was so astonished at the idea that people who are receiving federal tax credits would not only not realize that they had to file a return, but would actually get angry when informed that they had to do so, that I completely missed out on the larger implications.
28,524 additional people were enrolled in July 2015 as compared to June 2015 in the 51 states that reported comparable July and June 2015 data.
Yes, that's right: The net total number of Medicaid/CHIP enrollees went up fewer than 30,000 people in July.
It's worth noting that the improving economy may be a significant part of this. Remember that this is the net number of enrollees; for all I know, 300,000 new people joined the program but 270,000 who were already on it left. Baseline churn is tricky to keep track of.
However, the more likely cause is far simpler: ACA Medicaid expansion has simply finally maxed out in most of the states allowing it, and most of the "woodworker" crowd has presumably finally figured out that they're eligible as well.
The next Open Enrollment period for the Health Insurance Marketplace begins on November 1, 2015 for coverage starting on January 1, 2016. According to an HHS analysis, about 8 out of 10 returning consumers will be able to buy a plan with premiums less than $100 dollars a month after tax credits; and about 7 out of 10 will have a plan available for less than $75 a month. Highlights of the 2016 Marketplace Affordability Snapshot include:
Late last night I posted a quick walk-thru of the all-new 2016 HealthCare.Gov Window Shopping tool. For the most part, it's a major improvement over the 2015 version (which itself was, of course, a massive improvement over the buggy, 78-screen original version launched for 2014 open enrollment).
However, there are a few improvements which can always be made, and for me, one of the biggest ones is right at the beginning. Immediately after entering your Zip Code, the very first question which pops up is "Are you enrolled in a 2015 Marketplace health plan?"
Aside from the fact that some people may not even know whether or not their current plan is "through" the ACA healthcare exchange or not ("Marketplace" is a pretty generic term, after all...) the problem is that if you choose "Yes", here's what pops up:
It asks you to enter your current 14-character Plan ID.
In July, the Internal Revenue Service said 710,000 people who had received subsidies under the Affordable Care Act had not filed tax returns and had not requested more time to do so.
If those people do not return to the marketplace this fall, they may be automatically re-enrolled in the same or similar health plans at full price. And when they receive an invoice from the insurance company next year, they may be shocked to see that their subsidies have been cut to zero.
Erin M. Lackey, 41, of Jacksonville, Vt., was one of many people who received letters from the I.R.S. saying they were at risk of losing their tax credits.
Her mother, Ruth J. O’Hearn, a nurse who helps her daughter with insurance matters, described her own reaction.
...and sure enough, even the Window Shopping experience has changed since last year; here are the new screens, step by step (I'm using fake data here):
