DRAMA! In the House: 4 GOP members sign Dem tax credit discharge petition, forcing a vote...but...

There's been a bunch of High Drama® within the House Republican caucus this morning as four "moderate" (aka, extremely vulnerable) Republicans have gone ahead and signed on to the Democrats discharge petition to force a House vote on a clean 3-year extension of the enhanced ACA tax credits.

The four who signed on are Brian Fitzpatrick, Rob Bresnahan, Ryan Mackenzie (all of PA) & Mike Lawler of NY (see thread here).

As of this writing, this development is also apparently causing a massive uproar, finger-pointing & backstabbing among House Republicans, with a lot of anger towards Speaker Mike Johnson, with at least one other vulnerable GOP member flat-out accusing him of lying, yadda yadda yadda.

What this actually means in terms of the enhanced subsidies, however, is a different story.

The House vote itself will likely happen sometime in early January (after the holiday break), although Democratic House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries is calling for an immediate vote today (apparently there's a procedural way of making this happen).

Assuming it passes the House, the ball would then be kicked over to the Senate, where it would be up to GOP Senate Majority Leader John Thune to decide whether to have the Senate re-vote on the bill (remember, they just did so on the exact same 3-year clean extension less than 3 weeks ago, with it failing to break the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture).

Even if he does so, the odds of it reaching 60 votes in the Senate after only getting 51 a few weeks earlier are pretty slim. And even if it did, Trump could still veto it anyway (although I suspect if it somehow managed to achieve 60 votes for cloture in the Senate he probably wouldn't bother, seeing how he doesn't really care about it one way or the other).

The other big factor here is that the Continuing Resolution which 8 Senate Democrats voted for in order to end the federal government shutdown earlier this fall is only scheduled to keep the government open through the end of January, which means we could potentially be right back where we started at the end of September...

In any event: Again, if an extension does happen, it could absolutely be made retroactive to the beginning of January. After all, that's how they were passed in the first place: The American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) was passed and signed into law by Democrats and President Biden in March 2021, with the enhanced subsidies made retroactive to the beginning of the year.

Here's how it was handled at the time (remember that the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA) was actually signed into law by President Biden in March 2021):

When will the extra tax credits be available on HealthCare.gov?

Increased premium tax credits based on the lower income contribution percentage along with expanding tax credit access to consumers with household incomes above 400%, will be available through HealthCare.gov starting on April 1. This means that new consumers and current enrollees who submit an application and select a plan on or after April 1 will receive the increased premium tax credits for 2021 Marketplace coverage.

...If I’m currently enrolled in a Marketplace plan, how do I receive the additional tax credits/lower premiums?

Current enrollees, including those who recently enrolled through the 2021 Special Enrollment Period, can update their applications and enrollments in order to get new eligibility results starting April 1. You will need to reselect your current plan in order for the changes to take effect to reduce your premiums for the remainder of the year.

While the 2021 SEP opportunity is available through May 15, current enrollees can decide during the SEP opportunity if they may want to change to a new plan for the rest of the year.

...If I live in a state that operates its own Marketplace, what should I do?

Visit your State Marketplace website or call center for more information about when these additional savings will be available through your Marketplace.

If I’m currently enrolled through the Marketplace, what will happen if I don’t come back in?

Consumers who enrolled in Marketplace plans prior to April 1 have the choice of waiting until they file their taxes next year in 2022 to receive the additional premium tax credit amount when they file and reconcile their 2021 taxes. However, we recommend all enrollees come in, update their application, and review their plan options during the 2021 Special Enrollment Period through May 15 because you may be able to choose a plan with lower out of pocket costs for the same price or less than what you are currently paying

...Will HealthCare.gov automatically update premium tax credits on behalf of current enrollees?

If consumers don’t take action, they’ll still receive the additional benefit as part of their premium tax credit when filing their federal income tax return next year. Beginning on April 1, consumers must come back to HealthCare.gov to update their application in order to receive these increased tax credits this year. However, we are also exploring whether tax credits can be updated on behalf of consumers during 2021.

If memory serves, they were eventually able to start providing the enhanced subsidies for existing enrollees who didn't log back into their account & update their info starting in June 2021 or so, which meant that existing enrollees received them monthly from June - December and when they filed their taxes the following spring for January - May.

I assume it would work something like that, as well as including an extension of the final 2026 Open Enrollment Period deadline.

Anyway, stay tuned...