Last week I reported that at least 593,000 of the "Medicaid Unwinding" population (Americans who had their Medicaid or CHIP coverage terminated since the end of the COVID public health emergency's "Continuous Coverage" provision ended at the end of March) had shifted over to an ACA exchange plan as of the end of July (plus another 88K who enrolled in BHP plans).

As I noted at the time, perhaps 11% or so of the Unwinding population might move to ACA exchange policies instead when the dust settles on the ongoing unwinding process (12% or so if you include BHP enrollees).

Today, Amy Lotven of Inside Health Policy reports some additional data which indirectly supports this:

Earlier today I noted that according to the most recent Medicare enrollment report from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), Medicare Advantage enrollment--in which a private insurance carrier is paid by the federal government to administer Medicare benefits, and which differs in some important ways from "traditional" or "Fee for Service" Medicare--is on the verge of overtaking traditional Medicare in terms of total enrollment.

As of May 2023, 48.5% of all Medicare enrollees were covered via a Medicare Advantage plan, a percentage which has been steadily increasing over the years (it was only at 35.5% as of 2019).

While I mention this every time I post about the latest Medicare enrollment report, it's been some time since I've checked on the traditional vs. privately administered variants of Medicaid enrollees. For a long time I've been under the impression that roughly 70% of Medicaid enrollment was handled via Managed Care Organizations (MCOs):