Arizona: Preliminary 2019 #ACA rates: 5.3% DROP, but would have dropped up to ~19% w/out #ACASabotage

Arizona has only three carriers offering individual market policies next year. Blue Cross Blue Shield of AZ has nearly 40,000 enrollees and is keeping rates virtually flat, but specifically states that yes, they baked in extra costs to account for Congressional Republicans repealing the ACA's Individual Mandate and due to Trump's expansion of #ShortAssPlans (see screenshot below).

Centene is dropping rates by over 5 points. I don't know their exact enrollment/market share, so I'm forced to assume it's similar to last year's 95,000. Again, they call out both #MandateRepeal and #ShortAssPlans, but don't include a specific percentage for either (they did, but it was redacted in the public filing).

Finally, Cigna is dropping their 2019 premiums by a whopping 18.2% even with sabotage factors, which again are referenced in the filing. I don't know their enrollment either, but amd assuming it's roughly 16,000 since Arizona's total ACA indy market is around 150,000 people.

Assuming these are fairly close to the mark, Arizona carriers are requesting a statewide average rate drop of 5.3%.

The Urban Institute projected that mandate repeal & shortassplan expansion are responsible for a stunning 20.6% premium increase. Knocking 1/3 off of that gives me 13.7%; if accurate, that means without those factors, unsubsidized Arizona enrollees would be looking at around a 19% price drop.

Unsubsidized enrollees are currently paying $630/month on average, so that's a difference of $86/month or $1,036 for all of 2019.