Illinois: Requested 2016 weighted avg. rate hikes: 21.6% likely, 22.8% maximum
IMPORTANT: See this detailed explanation of how I've come up with the following estimated maximum requested weighted average rate increases for Illinois
As explained in the first link above, I've still been able to piece together rough estimates of the maximum possible and most likely approved average rate increase for the Illinois individual market:
Again, the full explanation is included in the Missouri estimate linked at the top of this entry, but to the best of my knowledge, it looks like the companies with rate increases higher than 10% come in at a weighted 32.7% increase, but only make up about 57% of the total ACA-compliant individual market, with several other companies with approved increases of less than 10% (decreases in some cases) making up the other 43%.
Assuming this is accurate, the worst-case scenario for Illinois is around a 22.8% weighted average rate hike. The "missing" companies are all at 9.9% or lower, so the likely overall average is around 21.6%.
As noted repeatedly in the explanation, the total market size could be higher (but is unlikely to be lower), while the <10% average could be lower than that. Either of these should result in the overall weighted average being lower than the percentages shown.