District of Columbia: @DCHealthLink breaks 18.1K QHPs w/time still left to #GetCovered

DC Health Link recently posted thei 2022 enrollment summary as of January 10th as part of their monthly board of directors meeting.

On the surface the numbers look pretty straightforward:

INDIVIDUAL ENROLLMENT:

• Current Enrollment: 15,993 covered lives
• Enrollment 1 Year Ago: 16,373 covered lives
• CHANGE: -380

SHOP ENROLLMENT:

• Current Enrollment: 5,298 groups, 83,935 covered lives
• Enrollment 1 Year Ago: 5,183 groups, 81,300 covered lives
• CHANGE: 115 groups, 2,635 covered lives

This suggests that 2022 indy market enrollment is running around 2.3% behind last year as of the same point in time, while small group (SHOP) enrollment is running 3.2% higher year over year (DC's small group market is much larger than its individual market due to the ACA requiring members of Congress and their staff to enroll using the DC SHOP exchange in order to receive their FEHBP benefits).

the numbers above all appear to be effectuated enrollment, however, as the next table shows "Open Enrollment Plan Selections:"

PLAN SELECTIONS:

• Auto Renewals: 14,866 / 82% (Last Year: 15,698 / 82%)
• Active Renewals 1,114 / 6% (Last Year: 958 / 5%)
• New Customers 2,123 / 12% (Last Year: 2,510/ 13%)
• TOTAL 18,103 / 100% (Last Year: 19,166 100%)

...which makes it look like 2022 OEP enrollment is down 5.5% year over year.

There's some additional demographic data about metal levels, age groups and so on, but here's where things get confusing: According to the official 2021 Open Enrollment Period Public Use File from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS), last year's final OEP enrollment in DC was just 16,947 people...far fewer than the 19.2K figure immediately above, and much closer to the 16.4K figure in the first table above.

If the 18,103 figure is the correct one for this year, that would put DC up 6.8% y/y.

So...I have no idea what to compare to what, honestly.