Michigan (& Florida): Let's check in on the brilliance of Nolan Finley

Nolan Finley is the conservative editorial page editor of The Detroit News.

On July 29th, he tweeted this out in response to criticism of the COVID-19 policy recommendations by himself and Michigan Republican legislative leadership:

Florida 20 million population, 6100 deaths. Michigan 10 million population, 6400 deaths. https://t.co/O1tNoyWwB0

— Nolan Finley (@NolanFinleyDN) July 29, 2020

Let's take a look at the data, shall we? Here's a graph of official COVID-19 positive test cases and fatalities per capita for both Michigan and Florida. Cases are per 1,000 residents; deaths are per 10,000 in order to make the trendlines more visible:

As you can see, while COVID-19 cases are now far higher per capita in Florida than in Michigan, deaths per capita are still considerably higher in Michigan...so far.

Now let's project the current trendlines ahead by a month or so to see what each will look like assuming both states stay on their current fatality trajectories. There's no guarantee that either one will, of course; either or both line could easily curve up or down...but assuming they stay along their current paths...

Let's see if Mr. Finley posts a revised version of his tweet in late September. I'm guessing he won't.