2020 Week Three Snapshot Report: 737K QHPs on HC.gov; cumul. total down 12% year over year; state breakout!

The Week 3 HealthCare.Gov Snapshot Report from CMS should be released later on this afternoon, covering enrollment in 38 states from Nov. 10th - Nov. 16th.

As a reminder, here's what the Week 2 report looked like:

There are two major things to account for when comparing the two years: First, there's a day missing due to Nov. 1st falling on a Friday instead of a Thursday this year. This likely accounts for around half of the 244,000 difference. The other significant difference is that Nevada split off from HC.gov this year, which accounted for around 12,000 of the gap the first 2 weeks.

If you assume around 130,000 of the difference is due to the missing day, that still leaves 2020 Open Enrollment around 100,000 short of the same time period last year on HealthCare.Gov.

Nevada added another 7,000 in Week 3 last year; when subtracting Nevada, HC.gov enrolled 741,000 people last year in Week 3. I'm assuming it'll be slightly lower still, due to things like Idaho's Medicaid expansion siphoning off a small number of "overlap" exchange enrollees, combined with the ongoing "reverse silver loading" syndrome.

Assuming around 730,000 for Week 3 this year, that would still leave them around 100,000 short year over year, bringing HC.gov up to around 13% shy year over year on an apples to apples comparison:

UPDATE: Well, now...I originally went with 740K, then dropped it to 730K. Actual number: 737,352. Huh.

As I expected, total HC.gov enrollments were virtually identical year over year, bringing the cumulative total up to "only" 12.4% short of last year (255,000 short).

Cumulatively, new enrollments are still down over 25,000 people (5.5%) while renewals are down 230,000 (15.7%), not accounting for the missing day or Nevada breaking off.

This is also the first week where state by state numbers have been broken out. Let's take a look (compared with last year):

As you'd imagine, just about every state is coming in short compared to last year. The exception so far, interestingly, is Mississippi, which is up 3.4% year over year (even without the extra day). At the opposite end of the scale, Maine's enrollment is down over 30%, presumably mostly due to them launching Medicaid expansion in 2019 (it was delayed until partway through the year), thus shifting a portion of the 2019 exchange enrollees over to Medicaid instead.

I've also sorted all 38 states out by worst to best performance to date compared to 2019. Again, all these numbers should actually be slightly higher due to the missing 17th day. Besides Maine, five other states are down more than 25% year over year: North Dakota, Nebraska, Arizona, Arkansas and West Virginia.