Ohio: Here's the ~865,000 residents who could lose coverage, by county

Assuming 265,000 people enroll in exchange policies by the end of January, I estimate around 175,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus another 692,000 enrolled in the ACA Medicaid expansion program, for a total of over 865,000 Ohioans kicked to the curb.

As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:

  • Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)
  • Project QHP selections as of 1/31/17 based on statewide signup estimates. In Louisiana, I actually expect the number of exchange QHPs to drop by about 17% from last year, mainly due to cannibalization by the Medicaid expansion program of those in the 100-138% FPL income range.
  • Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
  • Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
  • Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
  • Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.