Maryland: 94K QHPs, 91K Medicaid, on track to hit MY projection

A week or so ago, Maryland broke the official HHS target for 2015 (88K) with 91,137 QHP enrollments. Today, they're reporting:

As of Jan. 22, 185,199 Marylanders have enrolled in quality, affordable health coverage for calendar year 2015, since the 90-day open enrollment period began Nov. 15. That includes 93,806 people enrolled in private Qualified Health Plans (QHP) and 91,393 people enrolled in Medicaid.

As of Jan. 21, the total number of Medicaid and MCHP enrollment is 1,281,999. Compared to Dec. 31, 2013, the net change in Medicaid enrollment as of Jan. 21, 2015 is +241,337. This figure takes into account that individuals lose Medicaid coverage because of changes in household, age and income, as well as redeterminations.

OK, that's 2,669 in 11 days, or 242/day. This is down substantially from the prior week or so, but it includes the days leading up to and following the 1/15 deadline for February coverage (when they'd drop off again), so that doesn't really mean much.

Anyway, at the current rate, MD would add another 5,800 or so by 2/15 assuming no mid-February spike, although the odds are that it'll be double that or higher, so figure a bare minimum of 100K QHPs for Maryland, more likely 105K+...which just happens to be the exact number that I'm projecting myself!

Meanwhile, Medicaid enrollments are now up to 91.4K, a net increase of 241K since ACA expansion began.