Missing 3/31 State Data: CA, MA, NV, OR, VT

OK, in addition to the appx. 7.041 million enrollments on the Federal exchange (HC.gov), I've brought CO, CT, DC, HI, KY, MD, MN, NY, RI and WA completely up to date, with all QHP data through midnight on 3/31 (some of the Medicaid/CHIP data is still missing, but that's a lesser concern at the moment).

However, I'm still missing the following exchange QHP data:

  • California: 22 hours (that's right...the current tally runs thru 2am on 3/31)
  • Massachusetts: 3 days (current is thru 3/28)
  • Nevada: 2 days (current is thru 3/29)
  • Oregon: 3 days (current is thru 3/28)
  • Vermont: 1 day (current is thru 3/30)

I can't tell you how frustrating it is to be this close to full data while still missing it.

So, how much is actually missing? Well, if these states were running at their prior average March daily rate, it would be

  • CA: 11,754
  • MA: 512 x 3 = 1,536
  • NV: 427 x 2 = 854
  • OR: 502 x 3 = 1,506
  • VT: 775
  • Total: 16,425

However, this obviously doesn't apply since the final weekend and especially yesterday were insane.

California enrolled 156,000 people between 3/24 - 3/30...22,300 per day. On the one hand, they also instituted some sort of "triage" system yesterday only, designed to allow more people to start the process so that they qualify for the extension period, as opposed to completing it before midnight. Still, I'm assuming it was still pretty crazy-busy. Call it 25-30K (they previously hit a high of 30K on December 23rd).

The other 4 states are all ones with serious technical issues, so I'm going to assume no more than a doubling of their prior March rate, for another 9,300 QHPs during the periods shown, for a total of perhaps 35-40K combined.

I'm not entering any of this into the spreadsheet, mind you; this is just to get a sense of what the missing data might look like until it's available.