Minnesota: Preliminary avg. 2021 #ACA premiums: +3.0% indy market, +1.8% sm. group (very rough estimates)

The good news out of Minnesota is that the Commerce Dept. has published the preliminary 2021 average rate changes for both the individual and small group markets in a simple table.

The bad news is that they haven't published any of the actual actuarial memos or templates which include the two other critical pieces of data I need to run my analysis: The current effectuated enrollee totals for each carrier, and what (if any) impact the COVID-19 pandemic had on the proposed rate changes.

I was able to estimate the former by looking at MNsure's June executive board meeting slide deck, which breaks out the on-exchange enrollment by carrier by percentage. Unfortunately, this doesn't include off-exhange enrollment. Minnesota's total individual market was around 155,000 people a year ago, so the odds are that nearly 1/3 of the total market is missing below. I also have no idea about any COVID-19 factor in the rate filings yet.

Still, until I'm able to acquire the missing data, this will have to suffice. Assuming what I have is representative, MN carriers are asking for around a 3.0% average increase in 2021:

The situation is even worse for the Small Group market. I don't even have any partial data to work up an estimate from, so I've gone with last year's enrollment numbers for each carrier. The total here matches last year's 285,000 statewide market, but again, I have no clue whether any of the carriers have increased or decreased their enrollment since then (I assume, for instance, that UnitedHealthcare has some enrollees this time around).

Again, this will have to suffice until I get more complete data: