Connecticut: 87% of Open Enrollment QHPs still effectuated, strongly supports my national estimate

At the end of May, I noted some very promising news out of the Nutmeg State: Out of the 111,268 people (109,839 during Open Enrollment + another 1,429 during the #ACATaxTime SEP) who had selected a private policy via AccessHealthCT as of last spring, around 93% were still enrolled in effectuated coverage, which is fantastic considering that last year, 12% of those who selected QHPs didn't pay in the first place, aside from any additional net attrition which happened after the first month.

Well, it's mid-July now, and the AccessHealthCT board just had their monthly meeting at which they gave a bunch of solid updates. Thanks to Arielle Levin Becker for most of the Tweetstorm:

There are a total of 608,231 processed applications. 96,966 CT residents are insured in a Qualified Health Plan (QHP). #AHCTBoDMeeting

— Access Health CT (@AccessHealthCT) July 22, 2015

To clarify: The 608K figure also includes Medicaid applications in this case (i.e., this does not mean a 16% enrolment rate!)

CT exchange insurance membership now at 96,966; down from 110k at end of open enrollment period

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) July 22, 2015

Last year, as of last August 15, the effectuated enrollment number nationally was almost exactly 7.0 million people (after accounting for the DentalGate debacle), or 87.3% of the official 4/19/14 Open Enrollment tally, 4 months later.

By comparison, Connecticut is showing an 88.3% retention rate after 4.5 months. Extrapolated out, that would mean 10.32 million people still effectuated nationally vs. the 11.688M who selected QHPs as of 2/22/14...which just happens to be right in the range I've been assuming until now (previously 10.3 million, more recently bumped up to 10.4 million). Obviously different states may have different retention rates, but this is still promising (plus, CT actually had a lower relative rate of #ACATaxTime additions than the nation as a whole...1.3% of their open enrollment total vs. 1.8% nationally, so I suspect it's still closer to 10.4M than 10.3M today).

Main reasons for ppl dropping out of exchange: documents needed to qualify not verified, didn't pay premiums, getting Medicare/Medicaid

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) July 22, 2015

Yup, as always, I'm assuming around 10% didn't pay, with a few thousand others falling into the other categories.

Exchange plans to send letters, make robocalls to ~1,350 adults losing Medicaid coverage in Sept, assign brokers based on ZIP code to help

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) July 22, 2015

I mentioned this in the Sunday Short Cuts; the state dropped their Medicaid eligilbilty levels for a few categories to balance the new budget.

To get covg by 9/1, pl losing Medicaid must sign up for private insurance by 8/15, according to exchange operations director James Michel

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) July 22, 2015

That should bump up the QHP level by 1,000 or so.

In survey, 51% of new exchange customers said they didn't have insurance before enrolling.

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) July 22, 2015

This is slightly below the 53% national average estimated by the Commonwealth Fund, but not too far off.

Overall, CT's individual market did not grow from 2014 to 2015, according to filings by insurers. Medicaid grew, though.

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) July 22, 2015

This is kind of interesting. Since exchange enrollment did go up by 39% year over year, that means that about 30,000 people shifted from off-exchange policies to exchange-based ones this year.

Why did ppl drop exchange coverage? Survey: 19% cost reasons, 13% marriage, divorce, etc; 12% lack of usage or value or chose wrong plan

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) July 22, 2015

Exchange says survey shows 33 percent of those who dropped covg did so for reasons outside exchange control, like moving out of state

— Arielle Levin Becker (@ariellelb) July 22, 2015

And that about wraps it up.