Alabama: *Preliminary* avg. unsubsidized 2025 #ACA rate changes: -3.1% (unweighted) (updated)

Originally posted 8/05/24; updated 9/19/24

The good news is that RateReview.HealthCare.Gov has posted the preliminary 2025 rate filing summaries for every state, making it much easier to pin down which carriers are actually participating in the individual & small group markets next year, as well as what the carriers average requested rate changes are in states which don't publish that data publicly (or which make it difficult to track down if they do).

The bad news is that in many of those states, acquiring the actual enrollment data is even more difficult, as their rate filings tend to be heavily redacted.

Alabama falls into this category. As a result, I can only run unweighted average rate changes for the individual market, which once again consists of three insurance carriers: Blue Cross Blue Shield of AL, Celtic Insurance Co. (which is actually owned by Centene, which also owns Ambetter), and UnitedHealthcare Insurance Co. As it happens, the unweighted rate change is a reduction of 3.1%, making this the second year in a row that Alabama's ACA rates will be decreasing, which is interesting.

For the small group market, the unweighted average is a 7.4% increase, although interestingly three of the small group carriers include customer summaries which list their total enrollment. Unfortunately, the fourth one (BCBSAL, which is also likely the largest player) doesn't, which means I still only have the unweighted average to work with.

Updated 9/19/24:

I've made some additions & corrections to the spreadsheet, including correcting the 2024 avg. unsubsidized premium and adding the On Exchange effectuated enrollment & subsidized enrollment numbers as of February. While I don't know what the total individual market size is, assuming 85% of it is exchange-based, that would mean around 83% of all individual market enrollees in Alabama are subsidized this year.

In addition, the Alabama DOI issued a press release about their preliminary 2025 filings back in mid-August:

2025 ACA Rate changes for Alabama policies in the individual market

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) requires that insurers planning to increase plan premiums submit their rates to the Alabama Department of Insurance for review.

The rate review process is designed to improve insurer accountability and transparency. It ensures that experts evaluate whether the proposed rate increases are based on reasonable cost assumptions and solid evidence. The ACA also requires that a summary of rate review justifications and results be accessible to the public in an easily understandable format. The Federal HealthCare.gov Rate Review website is designed to meet that mandate. For more information, see https://ratereview.healthcare.gov/.

The information is provided in the tables below. Also attached are links to the redacted actuarial memorandum, which supports these changes. The rate changes are being proposed and reviewed by the Alabama Department of insurance (ALDOI). As soon as they are final, they may be purchased on the Federal Exchange or through private agents and brokers. The programs will be effective beginning on January 1, 2025.