UPDATED: FINAL unsubsidized 2023 premiums: +6.2% across all 50 states +DC

Rate Changes

I'm about 1/3 (update: make that 2/3) of the way through my Annual Individual & Small Group Market Rate Filing project, having analyzed & crunched the numbers for 18 36 states + DC. This seems like a good time to step back and see where things stand.

So far, I've compiled the preliminary unsubsidized average premium rate filings for both the ACA-compliant individual and small group markes in Akransas, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont and Washington State. It's important to remember that these are preliminary filings only--many of the carriers will have their final 2023 rate changes reduced, although in most cases they tend to be approved as is, and in some cases they're even increased beyond what the carrier originally requested.

It's also important to note that these 18 states + DC only represent around 30% of the total U.S. population...aside from New York, the other big states (California, Florida, Texas, Pennsylvania, etc.) haven't posted their 2023 filings yet.

Having said that, so far the average requested increases range from just 2% in Hawaii (not bad!) to nearly 21% in DC (ouch!). Across all 19 entries, if approved as is, the average unsubsidized individual market enrollee would be paying 10.1% more in 2023 than they are this year...around $58 more per month or $696 more over the full year.

I should also note that this $58/mo would be on top of the premium hikes enrollees who earn over 400% of the Federal Poverty Line will have to pay if the American Rescue Plan's expanded ACA subsidies aren't extended.

(Update: Never mind! The Inflation Reduction Act extended the ARP's enhanced subsidies for another 3 years after all!)

Stay tuned as more states are expected to release their filings over the next few weeks...

UPDATE 7/19/22: California just released their preliminary rate filings, which come in at an avg. 6.0% increase.

Given California's massive individual market (2.3 million...the second largest in the country after Florida), that brings the weighted average increases across 19 states + DC down to 8.5%.

UPDATE 8/04/22: I've added nine more states, covering around 55% of the total U.S. population. With these additions, the weighted average for unsubsidized premiums across 28 states + DC is now down to 8.2%.

UPDATE 8/09/22: I've added 6 more states (including another Big One...Texas), covering around 70% of the total U.S. population. With these additions, the weighted average for unsubsidized premium rate changes across 34 states + DC is now around 8.3%.

UPDATE 8/18/22: Only two more states have been added, but one of them, Virginia, makes a significant difference. Thanks to the state's new reinsurance program, preliminary 2023 rate filings are down 13%, single-handedly causing the national average to drop to a 7.7% increase.

It's important to note that in addition to the normal rate review process for final/approved filings, there's also the fact that the enhanced ACA subsidies included in the American Rescue Plan have now been officially extended another three years, which should have some impact on final 2023 filings as well.

UPDATE 10/14/22: Now that nearly half of the states have posted final/approved rate changes for 2023 (some of which completely skipped past preliminary filings anyway), I've gone ahead and switched over to start posting final rate filings, which are what's relevant here. The weighted average rate increase across the 24 states I've been able to find final rate changes for is +6.9%:

UPDATE 10/26/22: I've added final 2023 rate changes for another 9 states, for a total of 32 states +DC. The weighted average increase for unsubsidized enrollees has dropped a bit more to +6.2% overall:

UPDATE 11/03/22: OK, I've plugged in all of the missing states as best as I could, mostly using the final rate filings listed at RateReview.HealthCare.Gov. It's important to note that those numbers don't always jibe with the average rate increases on the raw filing forms themselves for some reason, and in some states I could only run either a partially-weighted or completely unweighted average due to lack of enrollment data for some carriers. This is especially true in the case of Louisiana, Mississippi, Nebraska, Ohio and Texas (where I have hard enrollment data for some carriers but not others).

With all 50 states + DC included, and the caveats above noted, my best estimate as to the final, weighted average rate increase for unsubsidized ACA individual market enrollees is...still +6.2%.

On average, this amounts to an increase of around $36/month or $431/year for unsubsidized enrollees (which should only make up perhaps 10% at most of individual market enrollees in 2023).