Texas: Avg. 2022 #ACA rate changes (unweighted): +1.5% individual market; +6.1% sm. group

Texas' annual health insurance rate filings are kind of a mixed bag in terms of transparecy. Hardly any of the carriers have Uniform Rate Review Template (URRT) forms or Rate Filing Justification Form Part II available (these are the documents which generally include the actual number of people enrolled in the policies for each market for that insurance carrier), and the Actuarial Memorandum (Part III) is heavily redacted for most of them, making it very difficult to lock in the actual enrollment numbers.

On the other hand, a few of them do offer one or both of the former documents, and in a few cases I was able to get the policyholder figures via the SERFF database. I'm operating on the assumption that each individual market policy has roughly 1.5 covered lives apiece on average.

Unfortunately, without having even that estimate available for half the carriers offering policies in Texas, I can't run a weighted average increase (it comes to +4.9% using what I have available), so I'm left (once again) with an unweighted average of around +1.5% on the individual market and +6.1% for small group policies.

It's also worth noting that three carriers which offered policies in 2021 aren't listed on the federal Rate Review website: For the individual market, El Paso First and the Insurance Co. of Scott & White (not to be confused with Scott & White Health Plan, which is listed); for the small group market, Prominence HealthFirst of Texas.